Republican debate watchers feel DeSantis did the best

Washington, DC, September 28, 2023 – A new 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted immediately following the second Republican primary debate finds that Republican primary voters who watched the debate feel that Ron DeSantis performed the best, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Still, about two in three Republican primary voters did not watch any of the debate. DeSantis is the only candidate whose favorability rating competes with Donald Trump’s, though more primary voters are considering voting for Trump over DeSantis. Even as Trump and DeSantis command the GOP primary field among self-identified Republicans, likely Republican primary voters who identify as independents are split between Trump, DeSantis, and Haley.

For 538's story, please click here. For the Washington Post's pre-debate story, please click here. For the Washington Post's post-debate story, click here.

Here is the 538/Washington Post/Ipsos pre- and post-debate GOP polling from August.

Detailed Findings:

1. One in three Republican primary voters say they watched Wednesday’s debate.

• Fourteen percent report that they watched all of the debate, while eighteen percent say they watched some of it.
• Among the 68% of GOP primary voters who did not watch the debate, just 4% report watching Donald Trump’s speech in Michigan.

2. For the second debate, Ron DeSantis is seen as the best performer, followed by Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.

• One in three likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate (33%) believe DeSantis performed the best. Haley and Ramaswamy trail behind with 18% and 15%, respectively, feeling they performed the best. This marks a notable dip for Ramaswamy from the last debate when one in four (26%) debate watchers felt he performed the best. No other candidate receives more than 6% on this question.
• When asked who performed the worst, Chris Christie (24%) was the most selected candidate, followed by Mike Pence (20%). At least ten percent of respondents say the same of Doug Burgum (11%) and Ramaswamy (10%). More think Pence performed the worst this debate (20%) than during the first Republican debate in August (13%).

3. Taken together, more debate watchers feel DeSantis had the best debate performance, followed by Haley and Ramaswamy. 

• Fifty-four percent of likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate rate DeSantis’ performance as either excellent or good, followed by Haley (44%) and Ramaswamy (40%). Ramaswamy’s performance dropped between the first and second debate, with 55% of debate watchers in August rating his performance then as excellent or very good. 
• Tim Scott (30%) led the second tier of candidate performances, followed by Burgum (19%), Christie (18%), and Pence (11%). Pence also saw a dip in his performance among debate watchers between August and September, with 27% rating the former vice president's performance as excellent or very good in August compared to 11% who did so in September.  

4. DeSantis’ favorability ratings rival Trump's, though more Republican primary voters say they are considering voting for Trump over DeSantis.

• Three in five Republican primary voters (60%) have a favorable view of Trump. Similarly, 58% of Republican primary voters rate DeSantis favorably. 
• Republican primary voters rate Haley (46%), Scott (39%), Ramaswamy (38%), and Pence (34%) in the next tier of favorability. Less than one in four Republican primary voters rate Christie, Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, or Will Hurd favorably.
• Sixty-three percent of Republican primary voters say they are considering voting for Trump. That’s followed by DeSantis, with half (51%) of Republican debate watchers considering voting for the Florida governor. Less than two in five Republican primary voters are considering voting for candidates in the rest of the field. 
• Independent voters likely to vote in the Republican primary are considering Trump (49%), DeSantis (48%), and Haley (43%) in roughly equal measure. 

5. The debate moderators received mixed reviews from debate watchers, with some feeling they could have covered key topics better.

• Thirty-one percent of debate watchers say the moderators had an excellent or very good performance, 41% say it was average, and 26% feel the moderates did a poor or terrible job. In August, 44% of debate watchers said the moderators did an excellent or very good job, while just 14% said they did a poor or terrible job.
• Female debate watchers are more likely to say the moderators did an excellent or very good job than their male counterparts (37% vs. 26%). Likewise, older debate watchers are more likely to say the moderators did an excellent or very good job than younger debate watchers (39% of those aged 65+ vs. 31% among those aged 50-64, 23% among those aged 35-49, and 26% among those aged 18-34, though the base size among respondents aged 18-34 is small).
• Most feel the moderators did an average job or worse of covering key topics ranging from the economy to immigration to wokeness, with the net rating varying by topic:
  • Reducing crime and promoting public safety: 44% selected average; +8% net rating (Percent Excellent/Very good - Percent Poor/Terrible)
  • How to build the American economy: 43% selected average; +8% net rating
  • Dealing with immigration: 38% selected average; +21% net rating
  • Wokeness or political correctness: 38% selected average; -13% net rating
  • Donald Trump’s indictments: 32% selected average; -31% net rating

About the Study

The post-debate wave of the 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted September 27 to 28, 2023, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. The pre-debate wave of this poll was based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older fielded September 19 to 26, 2023, screened to those indicating they are likely to vote in the upcoming Republican primary or caucus (N=5,002). The post-debate wave, which this topline reports, was administered to the same sample of respondents who took part in the pre-debate wave. Of those, N=2,262 responded to the post-wave survey and N=730 reported watching all or part of the debate.  

The margin of sampling error among those who responded to the post-debate survey is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error among those who watched all or part of the debate is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.28 for respondents and 1.30 for debate watchers. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The post-debate survey weight factors are the same as those from the pre-debate.  As such, the weighted total for post-debate respondents and debate watchers do not match their respective sample sizes. The weights for the post-debate respondents were not adjusted to account for the nonresponding pre-debate sample. 

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The full sample, pre screening, was weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the U.S. Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro) 
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

No respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

Washington, DC, September 27, 2023 – A new 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted in the week leading up to the second Republican presidential debate finds that former President Donald Trump remains the leader of the pack among likely Republican primary or caucus voters. Similar to before the first debate, two-thirds of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and are considering voting for him. Republican candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are the biggest challengers to the former president, although they remain a distant second and third, respectively.

The poll also finds that Republican voters are split on abortion. While a majority supports some type of federal ban, either at six or fifteen weeks, a majority also says that the decision on abortion should be left up to a woman and her doctor, rather than being regulated by law.

Detailed Findings:

1. Former President Trump polls most favorably among Republican primary voters.

• Sixty-seven percent has a favorable opinion of Trump, while just 30% view him unfavorably.
• Those with a high school diploma or less (79%) and those earning less than $50K a year (76%) continue to hold more favorable views of Trump compared to the college-educated (51%) and those earning more than $100K (61%).
• Similarly, two-thirds of Republican primary voters are considering voting for Trump (65%). The same demographic trends hold true here, with college-educated and more affluent voters being less likely to be considering voting for the former president.

2. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis polls most favorably after Trump, followed by former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. However, all candidates remain far behind the former president.

• Fifty-eight percent of voters have a favorable opinion of DeSantis and 48% percent are considering voting for him.
• Forty-four percent has a favorable opinion of Haley, and 31% are considering voting for her.
• Among the third tier of candidates, around a quarter are considering voting for Vivek Ramaswamy (25%), Mike Pence (24%), and Tim Scott (21%), while few Republican voters are considering Chris Christie (13%), Doug Burgum (5%), Asa Hutchinson (5%), or Will Hurd (3%).

3. Republican primary voters are divided on abortion, but a slim majority believes the decision should be left up to a woman and her doctor.

• Forty-three percent believe medical abortions or abortion pills should be legal in all or most cases. Fewer say the same of surgical abortions (37%).
• However, Republican voters are much more supportive of contraception. Nearly nine in ten (88%) say birth control pills should be legal in all or most cases and 58% say the same of emergency contraception like Plan B.
• The college educated and those earning $100K or more a year are much more supportive of all of these measures than those with a high school diploma or less and those earning less than $50K.
• Two in three voters (67%) support a federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is in danger. Fewer, though still a majority, support the same type of ban after 6 weeks (57%).
• While a majority of Republican voters support federal abortion bans, 54% believe that the decision on an abortion should be left up to the woman and her doctor, compared to 44% who say it should be regulated by law.
• Of note, those aged 18-34 (52%) are more likely than their older counterparts to believe abortion should be regulated by the law.

4. A majority of Republican voters support impeaching President Biden and reducing significant numbers of federal workers. However, they are split on sending U.S. military forces to Mexico to fight drug cartels.

• Sixty-nine percent of Republican primary voters support impeaching President Biden, including a majority across nearly all demographics.
• Nearly three in five (57%) support firing or removing significant numbers of federal workers. Black Republican voters (38% support, 44% oppose) are the only demographic in which a majority do not support this policy.
• Republican voters are more split on sending U.S. military forces to fight drug cartels in Mexico, with 44% supporting the measure and 46% opposing.
• Voters aged 65+ (50%) and 50-64 (47%) are more likely than their younger counterparts to support sending the military to Mexico (37% of those aged 35-49, 40% of those aged 18-34).

5. Inflation and immigration remain the top issues for Republican primary voters and are most important in determining which candidate they will vote for.

• Sixty-three percent believe inflation is the most important issue facing the country, followed by immigration (48%). Government budget and debt (33%) rounds out the top three.
• Lower tier issues include election security or fraud (18%), political extremism and polarization (18%) crime or gun violence (18%), and taxes (18%).
• In the same vein, 54% of Republican primary voters say getting inflation or increasing costs under control are the most important factors in determining who they will vote for in the Republican primaries. Two in five (40%) say the same of controlling immigration.
• Second tier important issues include the ability to beat Joe Biden (23%), cutting government spending (22%), someone who will fight against “liberalism and the woke agenda” (22%), and keeping America safe from foreign conflicts or terrorism (20%).

About the Study

This 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted September 19 to 26, 2023, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older. Questions presented in this document were only asked of those who are likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus (N=5,002).

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Non-responders were sent reminders to increase participation.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The full sample, pre screening, was weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the U.S. Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

Fifteen respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

The margin of sampling error among those likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus is plus or minus 1.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.28. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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