Two in three Americans feel Biden should step aside

Washington, DC, July 12, 2024—The latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain tied in a head-to-head matchup for the 2024 presidency, despite a poor showing at the first 2024 Presidential debate. The poll also finds that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are also tied.  On the issues, Trump is seen as better for issues like the economy and inflation, while Biden is seen as better on issues like healthcare and protecting democracy.

Read ABC News' article here and the Washington Post's article here.

Detailed findings:

1. Americans prefer Trump on the economy and inflation – the two most important issues to Americans.
   1. Nine in ten Americans say the economy (89%) is one of the single most or a very important issue in their choice of which candidate to support in the election. Majorities of Americans also say the same about inflation (85%), protecting American democracy (79%), and health care (74%). Less than half of Americans say the war between Israel and Hamas (44%) is the most important or a very important issue. These items have generally not moved significantly compared to polling from April.
   2. Trump is seen as better when it comes to the economy and inflation, the two most important issues to voters. Forty-five percent of respondents trust Trump more to handle the economy, compared to 35% who say the same of Biden. Similarly, 44% trust Trump more on inflation, compared to 33% who trust Biden. Trump is also seen as better on immigration (46% Trump vs. 32% Biden) and crime and safety (43% vs. 35%). These readings are generally unchanged since April 2024.
   3. Biden, on the other hand, is seen as better on healthcare (41% Biden vs. 35% Trump), protecting American democracy (42% vs. 36%), and appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court (41% vs. 36%). Biden’s lead on protecting democracy increased from 0 percentage points in April 2024 to 6 percentage points now.
   4. Just 17% of Americans say they are better off financially than they were when Biden became president. Most Americans say they are either not as well off (42%) or are doing about the same (41%).
2. Most Americans feel Trump was rightfully convicted in Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts in the New York business records trial, but most of Trump’s base still plans to support him.
   1. In a head-to-head ballot test, Biden (39%) and Trump (39%) remain tied. This is roughly unchanged compared to polling in April (38% Biden vs. 40% Trump).
   2. In a head-to-head ballot between Trump and Harris, the election is also statistically tied (42% Harris, 40% Trump).
   3. Over half of respondents (59%) say they think Trump was rightfully convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a New York court in May, while 38% say they think he was wrongfully convicted. About half (49%) say they think Trump should be sentenced to prison and about half say he should not (47%).
   4. Among respondents who say they plan to vote for Trump, 75% say they would continue to support him if he were sentenced to prison. Sixteen percent say they would reconsider supporting him, while six percent say they would no longer support him.

Washington, DC, July 11, 2024— The latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump's approval ratings have changed after the late June presidential debate, and the presidential race remains tied. Moreover, the majority of Americans continue to view both men as being too old to serve as president. However, as calls urging Biden to resign continue from Democratic politicians and public figures, two in three Americans agree that, given Biden's debate performance, he should step aside and let someone else run. The public is more evenly split on whether Trump should step aside or continue his campaign. Trump also has a significant edge over Biden on having the perceived mental sharpness and physical health needed to serve effectively as president. 

Read ABC News' article here and the Washington Post's article here.

Detailed findings:

1. Two-thirds of Americans believe Biden should end his campaign based on his performance in the first presidential debate. Half say the same about Trump. 
   • By a 67% to 30% margin, Americans believe Biden should step aside and let someone else run rather than continue his campaign for president. 
   • Half of Americans believe Trump should step aside (47% say he should not), which is similar to the number that believed Trump should end his campaign after being found guilty of falsifying business records in late May.
   • Among Democrats/those who lean Democratic, Vice President Kamala Harris is the top choice for who to replace Biden should he step aside (29%). Other candidates are distantly behind Harris, with California Governor Gavin Newsom at just 7%. Seven in ten Democrats report they would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee for president; however, the public is significantly more split (44% satisfied, 53% dissatisfied among Americans overall).
2.  While both men continue to be seen as too old for a second term, Trump has a significant edge when it comes to perceptions of physical and mental fitness. 
   • Fifty-eight percent of Americans say both men are too old, 28% feel only Biden is too old, 2% say only Trump is too old, and 11% feel neither man is too old. These findings are similar to an April 2024 ABC News/Ipsos poll; however, slightly more now say both men are too old (up 5 percentage points) while fewer say neither (down 5 percentage points). 
   • Biden faces greater scrutiny on his health and well-being than Trump. For example, 44% say the statement "he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president" applies more to Trump compared to 14% who feel it applies more to Biden. Two in five (41%) say that statement does not apply to either man. A similar pattern emerges on the question of good physical health (44% applies more to Trump, 13% more to Biden, 43% neither). Of note, Biden has lost ground on both of these attributes since late April, while perceptions of Trump's mental and physical health have not changed. 
   • However, Biden does retain an advantage over Trump on "honest and trustworthy" (39% applies more to Biden, 22% more to Trump), and will "protect American democracy" (41% Biden, 35% Trump). Yet, significant numbers of Americans feel these positive attributes do not apply to either candidate.
3. Despite calls for Biden to step down, views of Biden and Trump's job performance and favorability remain unchanged, as does registered voters' vote preference. 
   • Among registered voters, both Biden and Trump net 46% of the vote. Among all Americans, the race is also tied, 46% Biden - 47% Trump, and nearly identical to April (44% Biden - 46% Trump among all Americans).  
   • Thirty-six percent of Americans approve of how Biden is handling is job as president, unchanged from 35% in late April and ratings in the mid-30s in 2023. Similarly, looking back at the way Trump handled the job, 43% approve - also unchanged from April's 44% approval rating. 
   • Similarly, both Biden and Trump's favorability ratings are steady: 42% are favorable toward Biden, compared to 40% in April; 34% are favorable toward Trump, compared to April's 33%. Biden continues to be viewed more positively on a personal level than Trump, while Trump's job approval rating remains slightly better than Biden's.

About the study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted July 5 to 9, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,431 adults age 18 or older.

Forty-one respondents were removed from the data for either refusing to answer 50% or more of all eligible questions or for completing the survey within 1% fastest completion durations.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, and 2020 presidential vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.07. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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