Americans are more confident about a Trump-led future except for one key topic

The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week.

Why we asked: As if there was ever really any doubt, we’re looking at a Trump vs. Biden for the 2024 election.

What we found: When asked how confident they would be under a Biden second term or a Trump second term, Americans overall were more confident across the board under Trump – except for access to abortion and reproductive care, which Biden leads 2:1. That is the only good news for Biden. Just how bad is this data for Biden? Might be best to just bullet this out:

1. People are less confident about Biden than Trump in everything from the economy, to geopolitics, to investing in the stock market, to freedom of speech.
2. The only thing besides abortion that we’re even equal on is responsible development of AI, which we’re not at all confident about regardless of who wins.
3. Biden’s numbers have fallen off sharply since we asked a similar question (with some different choices) in the run-up to 2020’s election.
4. Trump’s numbers have gone up since the run-up to the 2020 election.
5. Biden’s numbers are lower now than Trump’s were in September 2020 for things like “your family’s future well-being,” “paying your bills” and “our relationship with China.”
6. The “less confident” levels are also all higher under Biden.
7. While the partisan splits are what you imagine, Republicans report higher levels of confidence under Trump than Democrats do under Biden.
8. Democrats are, give or take, two to three times as likely to be “more confident” under Trump than Republicans are under Biden (Republicans have single-digit confidence in Biden).
9. Democrats are just as confident investing in the stock market under Trump as under Biden.
10. When he was president-elect, we asked about Biden “bringing the country together” and 50% said they were confident. Today just 19% say they are confident that the country will be less divided under Biden, compared with 28% saying Trump will lead to a less divided America.

It’s worth noting this polling took place before the State of the Union. How could that speech impact opinions? Ipsos’ head of Public Affairs Cliff Young has five charts to show you.

More insights from this wave of the Ipsos Consumer Tracker:

Dry January, Lent and other forms of temporary abstinence are still unpopular

Americans’ descriptions of AI are getting more negative

The Ipsos Care-o-Meter: What does America know about vs. what does America care about?