Harris holds slight lead over Trump nationally

Washington, D.C., October 2, 2024 — A new Ipsos poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, unchanged from polling conducted among this same group of Americans in August. However, undecided likely voters lean towards Trump when they are forced to pick a candidate. Despite Harris’ small lead, the economy and immigration remain the top two most important issues to Americans, both of which Americans feel Trump has better plans to address, something that has remained consistent over time. When it comes to perceptions of the two candidates, more Americans view Trump as “weird,” “patriotic,” and “brave”; meanwhile, more Americans think Harris is “moral,” “intelligent,” and “cares about people like them.” Americans feel that Harris, more than Trump, is part of the establishment and represents a new way of doing things. Americans’ self-reported primary news source continues to be an important factor in the election.

Ipsos is following the same group of Americans nationally and in key swing states throughout the election cycle. To learn more about these Americans’ views, follow the links below:

September 2024 Swing State polling
August 2024 National polling
August 2024 Swing State polling
June 2024 Swing State polling
May 2024 National polling

Detailed Findings:

1. Among likely voters, Harris has a slight edge over Trump. However, non-Harris and non-Trump voters lean toward Trump when forced to decide between the two candidates.

• Forty-eight percent of likely voters say they would vote for Harris in the 2024 presidential election in November, while 44% would back Trump. The rest would choose another candidate (1%), don’t know (5%), or skip the question (2%).
• Analysis from this longitudinal study, where Ipsos goes back to interview the same people, finds that there has been no major longitudinal shift on the ballot between August and September. Before this wave, Harris consolidated support from voters who were possibly going to vote for Biden in the spring but weren’t sure yet. Likewise, in August, Harris benefited from a small bump from those who said they were not voting in May and those who said they weren’t registered to vote, then shifting to potential support for her in August. Between May and August, Trump also yielded a small increase in those saying they are likely to vote for him, picking up a few possible supporters.

• However, when likely voters who don’t back Harris or Trump are pushed to pick a side, more choose Trump (53%) over Harris (35%), while 15% skip the question.
• The generic Congressional ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives is statistically tied among likely voters (44% back the Democratic candidate vs. 43% who back the Republican candidate).
• On the ballot, conservative media consumers almost universally (90%) back Trump, while most whose primary source is mainstream media support Harris (65%). Mainstream media consumers include those who get their news primarily from CNN/MSNBC, network news, and newspaper or public news sources.
• Digital and local news consumers back Harris over Trump (47% and 43%, respectively). Among those who get their news from social media or some other unnamed source, more back Trump (37%) than Harris (30%). Conservative media watchers are those who watch Fox News and other right-leaning outlets.

2. Americans believe news coverage of Harris has been positive but believe coverage of Trump and Senator JD Vance has been more negative.

• Overall, Americans believe news coverage of Harris has been positive (+28 net favorable), while Americans feel news coverage of Trump and Vance has been negative (-41 and -40 net favorable, respectively). More Americans now than in August feel that news coverage of Harris has been favorable (+22 net in August). On the other hand, Americans feel news coverage of Vance and Trump is more unfavorable than in August (-35 and -32 net, respectively).
• About three in ten Americans (28%) say they are certain to vote for Trump, in line with August’s read (26%). However, 83% of conservative media watchers say they are certain to vote for Trump. Similarly, about one in four who get their news from digital, local, or social media/some other source say the same. Among mainstream news watchers, about one in ten (13%) say they are certain to vote for Trump.
• For Harris, one in three Americans (34%) say they are certain to vote for her, up slightly from August (30%). These levels also rose to 58% among mainstream media followers. About one in three (34%) digital news followers say they are certain to vote for Harris, while 31% of local news followers and 22% of those who get their news from social media or some other source say they are certain to vote for Harris. Only 4% of conservative media watchers say they are certain to vote for Harris. Inflation, immigration, and political extremism remain the most important issues to Americans right now. Trump is trusted more on inflation and immigration, while Harris is trusted more on political extremism.
• Inflation (51%) is the top issue for Americans, followed by immigration (35%), and then political extremism and crime or gun violence (23% each), all statistically unchanged from August. When asked to select just one top issue, Americans overwhelmingly choose inflation (31%), followed by immigration (11%) and political extremism or polarization (10%).

• Those who primarily watch conservative media are more worried about inflation and immigration than those who follow other news sources.
• More Americans feel that Trump, rather than Harris, has a better plan or policy to deal with the economy (Trump +5) and immigration (Trump +14). Trump’s numbers have softened slightly since August (economy Trump +9 and immigration Trump +17 in August).
• However, more nationally feel that Harris, rather than Trump, has a better plan or policy for political extremism (Harris +10), largely unchanged from August (Harris +8). Further, at the national level, more believe that Harris has a better plan for abortion (+18 Harris) rand healthcare (Harris +12) than Trump, something that has grown slightly since August (abortion Harris +14 in August and healthcare Harris +8 in August).
• Every news source, except mainstream news consumers, feels Trump, rather than Harris, , has a better plan for the economy. To that end, mainstream news followers think Harris has a better plan for the economy. A similar pattern emerges on the question of immigration.

3. On the perceptions of each candidate, more now than in August feel Trump is “weird,” while Harris has grown her perception that she is “intelligent” and “cares about people.” While Harris is considered a mix of new and old, more Americans feel Trump has the advantage of previous presidential experience.

• Americans are more likely to see Trump as “weird” (Trump +19), “lazy” (+9 Trump), “patriotic” (Trump +8), and “brave” (Trump +4). Compared to August, more now see Trump over Harris as “weird” or “lazy,” while Harris has eaten into Trump’s advantage around being seen as “patriotic.”
• However, Americans are more likely to view Harris as “moral” (Harris +22), “intelligent” (Harris +13), and ”caring about people like them” (Harris +11). More now than in August view Harris as more caring and intelligent. More also say Harris, rather than Trump, has earned her position (Harris +7).
• Far more Americans view Harris over Trump as part of the establishment (Harris +22). Yet, more also believe Harris, rather than Trump, is a person they can relate to (Harris +11). More Americans also believe Harris, over Trump, represents a new way of doing things (Harris +6) and is the right person at the right time (Harris +4).
• However, far more Americans feel Trump has the advantage of having previous presidential experience (Trump +29).

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted September 25-30, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,597 adults age 18 or older. This sample includes 1,340 registered voters and 1,313 likely voters.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.15. For registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and the design effect is 1.14. For likely voters, the margin of sampling error is 2.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and the design effect is 1.14. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, race/ethnicity by gender, race/ethnicity by age, and race/ethnicity by education. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the Pew NPORS 2024. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
• Race-Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other/Non-Hispanic and 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)  by  Metropolitan Status (Metro, Non-Metro)
• Education (Less than High School, High School graduate or equivalent, Some College, Bachelor, Master or higher)
• Household Income (under $25K, $25K-$49,999, $50K-$74,999, $75K-$99,999, $100K-$149,999, $150K and over)
• Party ID (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat, Democrat)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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