Nationally, Harris holds a small lead over Trump

Washington DC, August 8, 2024— A new Ipsos poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Trump in the race for the presidency. However, when non-Harris and Trump voters are forced to choose between the two candidates, the race between Harris and Trump becomes too close to call. Also, despite Harris’ small lead, the economy and immigration remain the top two most important issues to Americans, which are issues Americans feel Trump has better plans to address. When it comes to perceptions of the two candidates, more Americans view Trump as weird, a patriot, and brave, while more Americans feel Harris is moral, intelligent, and that she cares about people like them.

Primary news source continues to be an important factor in the election. Ipsos is following the same group of Americans nationally and in key swing states throughout the election cycle. To learn more about these Americans’ views, follow the links below:

August 2024 Swing State polling
June 2024 Swing State polling
May 2024 National polling

Detailed findings:

1. Among registered voters, Harris has a slight edge over Trump. However, when non-Harris/Trump voters are forced to decide between the two candidates, the race becomes tied.

• Forty-two percent of registered voters would vote for Harris in the 2024 presidential election in November, while 37% would back Trump. 4% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr, while all other registered voters would back another candidate (2%), would not vote (3%), don’t know or skipped the question (11%).
• Analysis from this longitudinal study, where Ipsos goes back to the same people, suggests that the shift towards Harris on the full ballot are mostly from voters who were uncertain about Biden in the spring and are now showing more certainty in their support for Harris. Likewise, Harris does benefit from a small bump from those who said they were not voting in May and those who said they weren’t registered to vote, now shifting to potential support for her.
• Trump is also enjoying a small increase in those saying they are likely to vote for him, picking up a few possible supporters.
• However, when voters who don’t back Harris or Trump are pushed to pick a side, more choose Trump (49%) over Harris (35%), while 17% skip the question.
• Taken together, looking at the combined ballot which includes those who stated their support outright and those who were pushed to Harris or Trump, the race becomes a dead heat among registered voters with 49% backing Harris, 47% supporting Trump, and 3% not knowing or skipping the question.
• In the push ballot, conservative media watchers almost universally (95%) back Trump, while most mainstream media backers support Harris (75%). For digital and local news followers, the race is tied. For voters who get their news from social media or some other unnamed source, more back Trump (54%) over Harris (39%). Conservative media watchers are those who watch Fox News among other right-leaning outlets. Mainstream media consumers include those who get their news primarily from CNN/MSNBC, network news, and newspaper or public news sources.

2. Americans believe news coverage of Harris has been positive, while news coverage of Senator JD Vance and Trump has been more negative.

• Overall, Americans believe news coverage of Harris has been positive (+22 net favorable), while Americans feel news coverage of Vance and Trump has been negative (-35 and -32, respectively).
• One in four Americans (26%) say they are certain to vote for Trump, which jumps to 77% among conservative media watchers and ranges from one in five to one in four among digital, local, or those who get their news from social media or some other source. Among mainstream news watchers, one in ten say they are certain to vote for Trump.
• For Harris, three in ten Americans (30%) say they are certain to vote for her, rising to 53% among mainstream media followers. About three in ten digital and local news followers say they are certain to vote for Harris, while 17% of those who get their news from social or some other source say they are certain to vote for Harris. Only 3% of conservative media watchers are certain to vote for Harris.

3. Much like in the swing states, inflation, immigration, and political extremism remain the most important issues to Americans right now.

• Inflation (50%) is the top issue for Americans, followed by immigration (33%) and then political extremism (24%).
• Those who watch conservative media are more worried about inflation and immigration than those who follow other news sources.
• More Americans feel that Trump over Harris has a better plan or policy to deal with the economy (Trump +9) and immigration (Trump +17).
• However, unlike in the swing states, more nationally feel that Harris over Trump has a better policy for political extremism (Harris +8). Nationally, more believe that Harris has a better plan for abortion (+27 Harris) and healthcare (Harris +8) as well.
• Conservative media consumers, those who get their news on social or some other source, digital, and local news followers feel Trump over Harris has a better plan for the economy. However, mainstream news followers think Harris has a better plan than Trump for the economy. A similar pattern emerges on the question of immigration.
• For political extremism, mainstream news consumers, and digital and local news followers feel Harris over Trump has a better plan for addressing political extremism. Conservative media followers think Trump has a better plan for political extremism than Harris, and those who get their news from social media or some other source are not sure.

4. When it comes to how Americans view the candidates, more feel Trump is weird, a patriot, and brave, while Americans are more likely view Harris as moral, intelligent, and that she cares about people like them.

• Americans are more likely to see Trump as weird (Trump +14), a patriot (Trump +12), and brave (Trump +7).
• However, for Harris, Americans are more likely to view her as moral (Harris +19), intelligent (Harris +8), and that she cares about people like them (Harris +6).
• Americans who follow mainstream news (Trump +52), local news (Trump +19), and digital media (Trump +16) are more likely to view Trump over Harris as weird. Conservative watchers are more likely to view Harris as weird (Harris +56).
• When it comes to being brave, conservative media watchers (Trump +78), people who get their news from social media or some other news source (Trump +18), digital news watchers (Trump +11), and those who follow local news (Trump +5) are more likely to view Trump as brave. However, mainstream news followers are more likely to see Harris as brave (Harris +30).

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted August 2-7, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,604 adults age 18 or older.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.16. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, race/ethnicity by gender, race/ethnicity by age, and race/ethnicity by education. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the Pew NPORS 2024. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
• State
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Republican/lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat/Democrat)
• Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Education (Some college or less, Bachelor and beyond)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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