Drop in global consumer confidence slows

Consumer expectations are picking up

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Catherine Morris Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, June 15, 2020 — At 40.0, the Global Consumer Confidence Index for June is down 1.3 points from last month, 8.7 points compared to its pre-pandemic level of January, and almost 7 points lower than at any time since its creation in March 2010. However, the past month drop in the index is significantly less steep than those seen between March and April (4.1 points) and between April and May (3.1), suggesting that the decline consumer sentiment is bottoming out.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of each of the 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 across 24 countries, conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.

Between May and June, 12 of the 24 countries show a drop of at least 1.5 points in their National Index. However, no country shows its index falling by more than four points, while five countries show no change or some improvement, including Japan (+0.1), South Korea (+0.4), Italy (+0.6), China (+0.8), and Australia (+2.0).

Furthermore, the Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation and employment, shows a slight uptick over last month (+0.7) to 49.0. It is up significantly in Australia (+5.4), China (+3.8), Italy (+2.9), the United States (+2.3), Canada (+2.1), Germany (+2.0), Turkey (+1.6), Japan (+1.5), and Hungary (+1.5). While four countries still show falling expectations – Argentina (-2.2), Great Britain (-2.0), India (-1.8), and South Africa (-1.5) – these drops are all much smaller than in previous months:

National Index Trends 

Compared to January, every single country's National index is down-by more than 10 points in eight countries (the United States, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, India, Poland, and Spain) and by five to 10 points in 10 other countries.

  • While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case in only two countries: China (67.4) and Saudi Arabia (60.4). 
  • At the other end of the spectrum, seven countries now have a National Index below 35, as compared to just one (Turkey) in January: Turkey (29.4), Russia (30.0), South Africa (31.4), Spain (31.8), Japan (31.9), Italy (33.7), and Mexico (34.0)

Nat index vs jan and may

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends 

At a global level, while the Expectations Index is up slightly compared to last month, the Jobs Index and the Investment Index both show a continued drop of about two points.  

  • The Jobs Index (46.3), indicative of confidence in job security and employment outlook, is no showing any significant gain in any country and is down by more than 1.5 points in 14 countries (most sharply in Brazil, South Africa, Great Britain, and Hungary). 
  • The Investment Index (33.8), indicative of the investment climate, is significantly up in only one country (Australia), while it is significantly down in 15 countries (most of all in India, Brazil, and South Africa).

Sub-indices

Visit our interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and  sub-indices -- and all the questions on which they are based.

 

About the Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.

Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.

Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click on this link for more information on credibility intervals.

The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.

The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.

The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

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The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Catherine Morris Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs

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