Democrats more positive about Biden post-Midterms

New USA Today/Ipsos poll also finds Trump remains strong but loses ground among Republican voters

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Senior Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist
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Washington, DC, November 20, 2022 – One week after the midterm elections, a new USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that Democratic voters [1] now have more favorable views of President Biden than they did pre-election. In contrast, while former President Trump still remains strong among Republican voters [2], he has lost some ground and fewer believe he can win the next presidential election. Lastly, in the wake of an election that saw Democrats overperform expectations but nonetheless resulted in divided government, a slim majority of Democratic voters now believe their party leadership can win elections, while Republican voters are much less confident in their party leadership.

Detailed Findings

1. Democratic voters are now more supportive of President Biden being the party’s nominee in 2024 than they were pre-election.

  • Seventy-one percent of Democratic voters believe President Biden can win the next presidential election. This is an 11-point swing from August, when three in five shared this sentiment.
  • Biden has made significant gains in this regard among those aged 18-34 (69% in November vs 53% in August) and women (71% vs 55%).
  • Biden has also made small gains post-election in other positive traits, including a willingness to use all tools at his disposal to get things done (78% in November vs 73% in August), bringing new ideas and solutions (75% vs 70%), and being an effective public communicator and campaigner (70% vs 65%).
  • Lastly, half of Democratic voters now say President Biden should be the nominee and deserves re-election, up from 44% in August. Voters that make less than $50K are more likely to believe he should be the nominee than they were pre-election (56% vs 46%).

Graphic 1

2. While former President Trump continues to remain strong, he has lost some ground among Republican voters.

  • Republican voters’ views of Trump have mostly remained stable post-election, as majorities continue to say he is willing to use all tools at his disposal to get things done (89% in November vs 90% in August), fights for the people he represents (87% in each month), and fights against woke corporations and cancel culture (83% vs 86%).
  • More than four in five (83%) also believe former President Trump stands up for the freedom and dignity of all Americans. Similar to before the election, Republican voters rank this as the most important trait for the next presidential nominee to have.
  • However, despite Trump maintaining favorable views among Republican voters, fewer now believe he can win next presidential election (75%) than they did in August (82%).
  • Along these lines, 54% of Republican voters believe President Trump should be the Republican nominee for president in 2024, down slightly from 59% in August.
  • Those with children (64%) and without college degrees (62%) are more likely than their counterparts to believe Trump should be the Republican nominee for president in 2024.

Graphic showing support for Biden and Trump in their respective parties regarding their potential re-election campaigns and perception of the Democratic and Republican Parties.

3. In the aftermath of the midterm elections, partisan perceptions of party leadership have changed significantly. Democratic voters are now much more likely than Republican voters to believe their party leadership can win elections. However, Americans’ overall perceptions of each party’s strengths have remained stable.

  • Fifty-four percent of Democratic voters now believe their party leadership can win elections, compared to just 39% of Republicans who feel the same. These changes are significant, as 49% of Republican voters felt their party could win elections before the midterm elections, compared to just 38% of Democrats that shared this sentiment.
  • Among all Americans, the Democratic Party continues to be viewed as more likely to be willing to compromise to get things done (27%) and inclusive (28%) than the Republican Party (18% and 15%, respectively). Democrats are also seen as better at pushing their agenda in Washington (26% vs 16%).
  • Similar to pre-election, the Republican Party is more likely to be seen as good for the economy (31%) and tough on crime (31%) than the Democratic Party (24% and 16%, respectively).
  • Americans continue to say inflation and increasing costs (51%) are the main problem currently facing the country. Second tier issues include gun violence (24%), crime (20%), climate change (19%) and political extremism or polarization (18%).

[1] Defined as those who say they vote at least occasionally and when they do, typically vote for Democratic candidates

[2] Defined as those who say they vote at least occasionally and when they do, typically vote for Republican candidates

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of a USA Today/Ipsos poll, conducted between November 15-16, 2022. For this survey, a sample of 2,004 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 684 Republican voters, 843 Democratic voters, and 477 voters that don’t vote for either party or are non-voters.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panelpartner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data, except for 2020 vote history, which comes from the Federal Election Commission. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and past vote.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,004, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-4.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for Republican voters, plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for Democratic voters and plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for voters that don’t vote for either party or are non-voters.

The results of this poll are trended against the following previous polls:

August 18 – 22, 2022; N=2,345; CI: +/- 4.2

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]  

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Senior Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist

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