Vibe shift among Republicans
A long-accepted truism of President Donald Trump’s approval rating is that his approval rating has a high floor and a low ceiling.
The ceiling is low because of high opposition among Democrats and low appeal outside of the Republican base. The floor is kept high because of a loyal Republican base.
This has held true for most of Trump’s political career. However, more recent numbers show that this truism may be getting tested.
Below are five charts on where Republicans stand on the cost of living, President Donald Trump, and the 2026 midterm elections.
1. Growing frustration with the cost of living. Since the start of the Iran war, the percent of Republicans who say their cost of living is heading on the wrong track has jumped roughly 30 points. Views of the national economy have similarly soured. This is a striking jump.
2. Republicans turn on Trump’s handling of the cost of living. Now, more disapprove than approve of the way Trump is handling the cost of living. Trump still performs well among Republicans on issues like immigration and crime. But right now, the cost of living is king. Ahead of an election set to be defined by the cost of living, these numbers are a problem for the Republican Party.
3. Trump’s approval among Republicans softens. Overall, Republicans still largely back President Trump, but the intensity of support has declined sharply since the start of Trump’s second administration. The signs point to a base frustrated by the impact war in Iran has had on the cost of living, and Trump is bearing the impact.
4. Republicans still backing Republicans. Despite these frustrations, Republican voters largely plan on supporting the Republican Party in this November. These plans have not changed. In addition, the Republican base still trusts the GOP on the cost of living and the economy, over the Democratic Party. However…
5. Republican enthusiasm lags that of the Democratic base. Democrats are amped up for the election. Republicans, not so much. Turnout is key in an election where less than half of eligible voters cast a ballot. And in an election where turnout is critical, enthusiasm is everything. Right now, Republicans are not enthused.
Republicans are upset. These souring numbers are bad news for a party already facing significant headwinds heading into the election.
It’s possible that this could all be water under the bridge if the war in Iran ends and gas prices drop. But it takes time to win back trust on the economy. Just ask Joe Biden. If these trends do not reverse, Republicans may face a similarly challenging environment beyond 2026. Low support for an incumbent president can harm a successor candidate. Also ask Joe Biden. Watch this space.
