In a week all about Democrats, Trump remains the center of gravity

The first completely virtual political convention is in the books. The compilation of tapped and live speeches, a delightful on-location roll call, stories from voters and appearances from Hollywood A-listers and musicians made up the four nights of programming as the party introduced their full ticket, and attempted to generate some buzz around a candidate that has largely been overshadowed by the President.

So, how did they do? Were they able to steer the conversation and put Biden on stronger footing heading into the Republican National Convention?

Ipsos’ Twitter Tracker offer some live feedback and insight into these questions. For starters, let’s just say Twitter does not speak for the American electorate. How people feel on the platform is not representative of the nation as a whole.

But, it’s helpful real-time reactions from viewers and those who are hearing about it second hand. And, Biden was largely able to generate positive sentiment each night and drive President Trump’s sentiment down as the party aimed pointed attacks against his administration. That positive social media sentiment tracks with polling. Biden’s favorability jumped five points after the convention closed.

Ipsos’ post-convention polling with ABC News found that many core parts of the Democrats base felt positively about how the event was conducted, and were also more likely to tune in. On the other hand, people outside of the Democratic party were more likely to hold negative opinions about the virtual show and were less likely to watch any of it.

Importantly, few people actually watched all or most of the eight hours of programming. About one in ten people saw a lot of the convention, while about half of Americans watched at least a little of the event.

Given the President’s ability to change the conversation, particularly on Twitter, Democrats were always going to struggle for the spotlight in that medium. Some party favorites, like former First Lady Michelle Obama, were able to eclipse Trump’s mentions during the end of the first night of the convention. Obama is very popular, and even that boosted popularity just put her over the President’s mentions, though notably her sentiment is much higher than his.

On the second and fourth night, Twitter conversation turned towards Biden. The former Vice President was able to move his mentions and sentiment up during the second half of programming each night, during the convention’s prime time hour. Still, Trump dominated the conversation leading up to the convention and during the first hour of programming.

Interestingly, despite an acceptance speech that painted a dark picture of the current President, Trump’s mentions fell throughout much of the night and particularly plummeted during Biden’s acceptance speech. The sentiment ratings for the President, never high, were far lower while the former Vice President was accepting the nomination. Overall, Twitter received Biden’s speech warmly.

During the Democratic debates, Biden struggled to make noticeable inroads on Twitter. Party unity throughout the convention may have elevated the 77-year-old candidate in the Twittersphere. Former competitors, like Senators Corey Booker, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and, of course, Kamala Harris, the other half of the Biden ticket, all came together under one rallying cry.

As the pandemic has limited in person campaigning, Biden and the Democratic party more broadly were able to effectively push his candidacy through that social platform.

Talk of the Twitter town

Biden had to fight to eclipse the President when it came to mentions on Twitter, and he wasn’t able to do it each and every night of the convention. Despite this, chatter on Twitter followed the DNC agenda. The first night of the convention social conversation was dominated by coronavirus and civil rights reflecting the focus on Black Lives Matter and the pandemic. Each evening followed suit, zeroing in on the coronavirus, healthcare, the state of the economy and civil rights.

What the polling says

Biden’s lead softened slightly ahead of the convention. Polling Ipsos conducted for Reuters over the weekend and into the early days of the convention found that the former Vice President’s lead narrowed, down two points from the double-digit margin he held over the president a few weeks ago.

The movement in the polls and sentiment all happened before the Republican National Convention. Trump’s team already pulled out the stops when the DNC had the limelight. The President’s re-election campaign launched a seven-figure ad buy across YouTube’s masthead, overlapping with the DNC. The bigger test will be how the GOP puts together its own virtual convention in the coming days as the spotlight hits them.

The former Vice President fought an uphill battle to gain traction within the Twittersphere each night of the convention, when all eyes and programming were turned to him. Even as he largely made out on top, President Trump still dominated the conversation half the time.

Now, the President will have his go. Can Biden hold onto this goodwill through a RNC offensive? The first virtual conventions may still have some surprises.