Global consumer confidence up for the eighth month in a row

Expectations Index back to its pre pandemic level

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US
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Washington, DC, May 19, 2021 —Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index shows a month-to-month gain of nine-tenths of a point, sitting just 2.3 points below its pre-pandemic level of January 2020. Of note, this month’s Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment, is back to its pre-pandemic level and slightly above its 11-year historical average.   
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 countries’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between April 23 and May 7, 2021.
Ten of the 24 countries surveyed show significant growth in their National Index when compared to last month: the United States (+3.7), Israel (+3.4), Great Britain (+2.7), Poland (+2.6), France (+1.9), Hungary (+1.9), Saudi Arabia (+1.8), Italy (+1.7), Mexico (+1.7), and Spain (+1.6). Only two countries display a significant drop: India (-3.4) and Turkey (-2.1).

 

National Index Trends

The Global Consumer Confidence Index reads at 46.4, up from 45.5 in April, marking yet another month of gains.

  • Eight countries have a National Index above 50: China (72.6), Saudi Arabia (65.7), the U.S. (59.5), Sweden (57.3), Australia (56.6), Great Britain (54.2), India (53.0) and Germany (52.4).
  • Only two countries have a National Index below 35: Turkey (30.0) and Argentina (34.4).
  • Once again, the three countries in the survey showing the highest levels of month-over-month growth (the U.S., Israel, and Great Britain) are also those leading in vaccination rollout as per Oxford University data.  

 

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

For the third month in a row, the Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Indices all display month-on-month gains. Six countries see significant gains (at least 1.5 points) across all three indices: Great Britain, Israel, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Spain, and the U.S. Meanwhile, India and Turkey record significant drops on all three.

  • The global Jobs Index is up 1.2 points from April 2021, currently reading at 52.1. It is 4.3 points short of its reading of January 2020. Israel, the U.S., and Hungary display the largest gains in this measure over last month while Turkey and India are the only markets to post significant month-over-month losses. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, China and Saudi Arabia stand out with gains of more than 3 points while Mexico and Brazil are down by more than 10 points.
  • After gaining 0.6 points from last month, the global Investment Index currently reads at 40.5. The Investment Index now sits 1.9 points behind its January 2020 reading. Eight countries post significant month-on-month gains, most of all Israel, Great Britain, and the U.S. India shows a drop of 4.7 points from last month.
  • The Expectations Index sits at 57.1 with a gain of 0.9 point over last month, surpassing its level of January 2020 by 0.1 point. Eleven of the 24 countries post significant gains over April, most of all Poland, France and Great Britain. Significant drops since last month are seen in Turkey, Argentina, and India. Compared to January 2020, changes range from an uptick of more than 9 points in Australia to a drop of more than 11 points in Argentina.
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      Visit our interactive portal, Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.
       
      About the Study
      These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
      Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
      Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click here for more information.
      The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.
      The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
      The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

       

      The author(s)

      • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US

      Consumer & Shopper