Global consumer confidence remains muted

Expectations and investment sentiment continues to decline

The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
Get in touch

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 47.5, relatively unchanged since May (-0.1 point). It continues to remain lower than it was in February, before the invasion of Ukraine, by a more significant 1.2 points.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between May 20 and June 3, 2022.

This month’s survey identifies minimal significant month-over-month shifts (defined as gains or losses of at least 1.5 points at the country level) in the National Index and sub-indices of many countries. Most of the significant changes are downward, continuing to reflect the disruptive effect of inflation, the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19.

Among the 23 countries, only China shows significant gains in its National Index since May, while just two countries – Hungary and South Africa – show significant declines. In addition to declining by almost five points over the last two months, Hungary also shows significant losses across all three sub-indices (Expectations, Investment, Jobs).

Four countries show a significant drop since last month in their Investment Index—indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook—and in their Expectations Index—indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment.

Jobs-related sentiment continues to hold up well. Only Hungary and Turkey show significant declines in their Jobs Confidence Index, and jobs sentiment is up significantly in China and Mexico.

National Index Trends

This month, Saudi Arabia continues to hold the highest National Index score. This is the fourth consecutive month that Saudi Arabia has set a record high score, and it is now the only country with a National Index score above 70. With the lifting of COVID-control restrictions, consumer sentiment in China has rebounded. Along with Saudi Arabia, China and India are the only countries with a National Index score above 60.

Five other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Sweden (55.7), Australia (54.1), the United States (53.5), Canada (51.0), and Mexico (50.2). This is the first time Mexico’s National Index score is above 50 since December 2019.

Six countries now show a National Index below 40: South Africa (39.7), Japan (39.2), Poland (38.6), Hungary (37.7), Argentina (37.3), and Turkey (28). This is Turkey’s lowest National Index score in the tracker’s 12-year history, and it has not been above 35 since the pandemic started in March 2020.

The number of countries now showing an index score that is significantly higher than it was in January 2020, pre-pandemic, is down to just four: Saudi Arabia (+7.3), India (+4.4), Australia (+3.5), and South Korea (+3.3).

In sharp contrast, 10 of the 23 countries show a National Index that is significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic: the United States (-9.1), Poland (-8.9), Hungary (-6.7), Turkey (-6.1), Germany (-5.7), Great Britain (-4.5), Brazil (-3.8), Belgium (-3.8), Israel (-3.2), and Argentina (-2.9).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

  • Four countries show a significant drop (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ financial, economic, and employment outlook: Hungary, Poland, South Africa, and Australia. None of the countries surveyed showed a significant gain.  
  • Four countries (Hungary, South Africa, Australia and Poland) show significant losses in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. Saudi Arabia and China are the only countries to show significant gains.

China and Mexico are the only countries show significant month-on-month gains in their Jobs Index, while Hungary and Turkey are the only ones to show a significant drop.

About this study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper