October 2023: Consumer confidence declines sharply across Southeast Asia
Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index is down 0.4 point from last month to 47.2. This marks the fifth consecutive month without a significant month-over-month change for the index. Among 29 economies measured, just four show significant gains in consumer sentiment while nine show a notable decline.
The global Current and Investment indices both show significant declines this month of more than half a point. In contrast, the global Expectations and Jobs’ indices show little change.
Sentiment decreased significantly in Southeast Asia this month. Malaysia (-5.3 points) and Singapore (-4.0 points) show the largest declines among all countries. Consumer confidence is also down in Indonesia (-3.0 points).
Sentiment is also down significantly in Europe, as the Netherlands (-3.9 points), Sweden (-2.3 points) and France (-2.2 points) all show significant declines.
In contrast, consumer confidence is up in Latin America. Argentina (+3.9 points), Colombia (+3.6 points) and Mexico (+3.4 points) all show significant month-over-month gains of at least three points.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 21,000 adults under the age of 75 from 29 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between September 22 and October 6, 2023.
Consumer sentiment in 29 countries
Among the 29 countries, India (64.1) now holds the highest National Index score this month. This is the first time since eight new countries were added in February that a country other than Indonesia has held the highest score.
For the third consecutive month, India and Indonesia (62.9) remain the only countries with a National Index score of 60 or higher.
Just six other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Brazil (58.5), Mexico (58.5), Thailand (58.1), the U.S. (52.0), Singapore (51.7), and the Netherlands (50.5).
In contrast, just five countries show a National Index below the 40-point mark: South Korea (39.2), Japan (38.1), Argentina (37.0), Hungary (35.6), and Turkey (34.5).
Of note, sentiment in Canada (45.6) is now at its lowest point since December 2020.
Compared to 12 months ago, Australia (-4.0) and Canada (-2.5), are the only countries to show a significant drop in consumer sentiment. Eleven countries now show significant increases, most of all in Belgium (+9.7) and Mexico (+9.3).
Trends
Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index (based on all 29 countries surveyed) currently reads at 47.2, showing stability (-0.4 point) for the fifth consecutive month. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries” tracked since March 2010, it would read at 45.2.
The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, shows a decline across the 29 countries of 0.7 point to 37.1. Just six countries show a significant month-over-month gain (at least 2 points) in their Current index, while ten countries also show a significant loss.
The Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’ perception of the investment climate, is down 0.6 point and sits at 39.3. Only four countries show a significant gain in their Investment index, while nine countries show significant losses.
The Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer expectations about future economic conditions, shows little change this month (-0.2) and is now at 56.4. Six countries show significant gains in their Expectations index, and six countries show significant losses.
The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, is down an insignificant 0.2 point this month and now sits at 57.4. In total, six countries show significant gains in their Jobs index, and five countries show significant losses.
Of note, Singapore, the Netherlands and Sweden show significant declines (of at least 2 points) across all four sub-indices. In contrast, Argentina and Colombia all show significant month-over-month gains across all four sub-indices.
About the study
These findings are based on data from a monthly 29-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online survey platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform. They are first reported each month by Refinitiv as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
The results are based on interviews with over 21,200 adults aged 18+ in India, 18-74 in Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.
