The Vietnam Swine Market

Years of successful trade led Vietnam’s hog farmers toward a period of expansion, leaving them unprepared for a sudden decrease in demand from China, their largest export partner.

Faced with an oversupply and few new market opportunities to pursue, hog farmers in Vietnam suddenly face difficult choices as they struggle to plot a course forward. This paper explores the background events which shaped the current Vietnamese swine market, outlines two possible scenarios for the years ahead, and makes actionable recommendations for farmers as they adjust to the new climate.

Introduction

In the months from November 2016 to July 2017, Vietnamese swine farms faced increasing challenges due to a steep decline in the farm gate price. Many have argued that the main culprit for this loss in income is China’s sharp reduction in the import of live hogs. However, as the Chinese swine industry is currently restructuring to improve its international competitiveness and lessen its reliance on foreign pork imports, the question remains for Vietnamese farms: Will the farm gate price rise once again?

In this paper, Ipsos Business Consulting explores the prospects for Vietnam’s swine industry in 2017 and beyond, by examining the swine supply versus demand during the period 2013-16. We have exhaustively collected and analysed historical data of local pork consumption, as well as official and undocumented exports, to investigate the trends that are likely to influence swine output. We also discuss the oversupply of swine and its impacts in 2016 based on primary and secondary research with multiple industry experts as well as swine farmers. From this analysis, we examine two potential scenarios facing Vietnam’s swine industry this year. Collectively, the findings from this paper provide feed and animal health players with a solid industry outlook which can serve as a useful input in developing their future strategies.

  • 2013-2016: Vietnam's hog fever
  • 2016: a tipping point
  • 2017 and beyond: a gloomy outlook
  • 2018: fast forward

 

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