Theresa May’s personal ratings fall as Labour reduces Conservative lead
CON 45; LAB 40; LIB DEM 7; UKIP 2
With less than a week to go until polling day Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor reveals the gap has closed between the Conservatives and Labour as the Conservatives maintain a 5-point lead. The survey has the Conservatives with 45%, Labour 40%, the Liberal Democrats 7% and UKIP 2%. (This poll now includes an adjustment to allow for potential overclaim in likelihood to vote - see methods note below).
Overall four in five (78%) voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for next week while one in five (20%) may change their mind. There is little difference between potential Conservative and Labour voters with 75% and 76% respectively saying they have definitely decided who they’ll vote for (23% of Conservative voters and 21% of Labour voters may change their mind).
Theresa May still commands a lead over Jeremy Corbyn when it comes to who Britons think would be the most capable Prime Minister. Half (50%) think Ms May would be the most capable (down 6 points from two weeks ago) while one in three (35%) say Mr Corbyn (up 6 points). Younger voters prefer Mr Corbyn (by 57% to 30% among 18-34s), but older voters still choose Mrs May (by 67% to 18% among 55+).
Theresa May also leads Jeremy Corbyn when it comes to leadership satisfaction ratings however her numbers are much lower than seen in our last poll two weeks ago. Forty-three percent say they’re satisfied with Theresa May doing her job (down 12 points) while half (50%) say they’re dissatisfied with her (up 15 points) - leaving her a net satisfaction score of -7 (her first negative rating since becoming Prime Minister). This compares with two in five (39%) satisfied with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader (up 8 points) and half (50%) dissatisfied with him (down 8 points) – giving him a net score of -11. Conservative voters still strongly back Theresa May with 82% saying they’re satisfied with how Theresa May is doing her job (14% are dissatisfied). Labour voters have become more enthusiastic for Jeremy Corbyn, with 71% saying they are satisfied in his performance and 19% dissatisfied.
Despite being well into the election campaign both Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron and UKIP leader Paul Nuttall are yet to make inroads with the public. A quarter (25%) are satisfied with the Liberal Democrat leader (down 3 points) while 44% are dissatisfied (up 5 points) – leaving him with a net score of -19, although three in ten (30%) say they have no opinion of Mr Farron. Paul Nuttall also struggles with low public satisfaction ratings where 18% say they’re satisfied with the UKIP leader’s performance (up 1 point) and more than half (55%) are dissatisfied (also up 1 point) – giving him a net score of -37 with 27% saying they have no opinion of him.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said:
Here’s more evidence of the Conservative’s wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people. Meanwhile, Labour’s support still relies a great deal on younger people, who in the past have proven less likely to vote.
Notes to Editors:
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,046 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 30th May – 1st June 2017. Data are weighted to the profile of the population (by age, gender, region, work status/sector, social grade, car in household, child in household, tenure, education and newspaper readership). Our voting intention figures include two changes this month. First of all, as we always do at this point in a campaign, only those who say they are registered to vote are included. Secondly, we have also introduced an adjustment to allow for respondents’ overclaiming their likelihood to vote, based on evidence from validated votes from the British Election Study in previous elections. (The overall impact on voting intentions is small, increasing Conservative share by one point and reducing Labour share by one point.)