Voting Intention in Great Britain: Recent Trends

Figures are based on all those absolutely certain to vote. (This is Ipsos MORI's "headline" voting intention measure)

Voting Intention in Great Britain: Recent Trends

This page shows the voting intention figures of those of the public who say they are "absolutely certain to vote" from all our published polls since we started measuring voting intention on this basis in 2002. It includes ad hoc polls as well as figures from the monthly Political Monitor.

We currently regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections: this has been our "headline" figure since November 2002. (Please note that this measure is not based on the assumption that this is the group who will vote at the next general election, as this population are not accurately identifiable in mid-term polls.) Up to October 2002, the "headline" figure was based on the responses of all those giving a voting intention, regardless of how certain they were that they would vote.

Unless indicated, polls were conducted with face-to-face interviewing. Polls conducted by telephone are indicated with a (T).

Links to other voting intention trend pages:

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? (Ask those undecided / refused)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

2002ConLabLib
Dem
GreenDem/
UKIP/
Ref
OtherLab lead
 %%%%%%± %
14-19 November 2002304221115+12
12-17 December 2002333724114+4
2003ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenDem/
UKIP/
Ref
OtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
23-27 January 20032744204212+17
20-25 February 20032941223212+12
20-24 March 20032943213212+14
24-28 April 200329432141*1+14
22-28 May 20033139224111+8
19-24 June 20033241194211+9
26-27 June 2003 (T)353519110
17-22 July 20033835213111-3
28 August - 2 September 200334362431*2+2
11-16 September 200331402132*3+9
23-28 October 20033538213112+3
31 October - 2 November 2003 (T)32382522*1+6
20-25 November 20033536222212+1
11-17 December 20033140223112+9

(T) = Telephone polls

2004ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
15-20 January 20043537213211+2
12-16 February 20043536213212+1
11-16 March 200435352332120
15-19 April 20043436223212+2
27 May - 1 June 20043435183344+1
24-29 June 20043134193462+3
22-27 July 20043132243352+1
12-16 August 20043236212243+4
10-14 September 20043332252242-1
21-27 October 20042939223341+10
4-8 November 20043135233332+4
2-6 December 20043035262331+5
2005ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
20-24 January 20053238223222+6
17-21 February 20053739182211+2
17-22 March 200537372021120
1-3 April 2005* (T)393421222*-5
7-9 April 2005* (T)3340193221+7
7-11 April 2005353921221*+4
15-18 April 2005* (T)3240211213+8
18-19 April 2005* (T)3239222212+7
21-25 April 20053436232221+2
28-29 April 2005* (T)3336223222+3
29 April-1 May 2005* (T)2939223232+10
3-4 May 2005* (T)3338236+5
General election result (5 May)33.236.222.6 8.0 +3
19-23 May 20053037262112+7
16-20 June 20052942212222+13
14-18 July 20052841252211+13
11-15 August 20053139242211+8
22-26 September 20052939253112+10
20-25 October 20053440212111+6
17-22 November 20053242192211+10
9-12 December 2005 (T)403121431*-9

* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th?"
(T) = Telephone polls

2006ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
12-17 January 2006 (T)39391523120
19-23 January 20064038172211-2
16-20 February 20063538201213+3
16-21 March 20063439193311+5
20-22 April 2006 (T)30302544250
27 April -2 May 20063632212423-4
25-30 May 20064131182322-10
8-12 June 20064134182222-7
20-26 June 20063633212413-3
20-24 July 20063632242321-4
31 August - 6 September 20063536193313+1
12-16 October 20063537183322+2
9-14 November 20063533203315-2
7-12 December 20063736182322-1

(T) = Telephone polls

2007ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
19-29 January 200739351931*3-4
9-15 March 20074133173312-8
19-25 April 20073831203313-7
17-22 May 20073735183323-2
14-20 June 20073639153313+3
12-17 July 20073541153213+6
8-9 August 2007 (T)3338152327+5
23-29 August 20073641163112+5
20-22 September 2007 (T)3442143223+8
20-26 September 20073144153214+13
27-28 September 2007 (T)3441162223+7
10 October 2007 (T)4138114213-3
18-23 October 20074041132212+1
31 October - 1 November 2007 (T)4035134224-5
23-27 November 2007 (T)4132175212-9
29 November - 7 December 20074235144212-7

(T) = Telephone polls

2008ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%± %
9-10 January 2008 (T)4232154313-10
17-23 January 20083738162214+1
21-26 February 20083937163213-2
13-18 March 20084035182113-5
17-22 April 20084031193322-9
15-20 May 20084532143213-13
13-15 June 2008 (T)4528164331-17
18-20 July 2008 (T)4727152423-20
15-17 August 2008 (T)4824163522-24
12-14 September 2008 (T)5224124413-28
17-19 October 2008 (T)4530143314-15
14-16 November 2008 (T)4037123323-3
27-28 November 2008 (T)4332154322-11
10-11 December 2008 (T)4136115313-5
12-14 December 2008 (T)3935153323-4

(T) = Telephone polls

2009ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%± %
16-18 January 2009 (T)44301742111-14
13-15 February 2009 (T)48281721121-20
13-15 March 2009 (T)42321443121-10
17-19 April 2009 (T)41282232112-13
29-31 May 2009 (T)40181846743-22
12-14 June 2009 (T)39251934622-14
19-21 June 2009 (T)38211935851-17
17-19 July 2009 (T)40241835532-16
21-23 August 2009 (T)43261724413-17
25-27 September 2009 (T)36242533414-12
16-18 October 2009 (T)43261942212-17
13-15 November 2009 (T)37311733324-6
11-13 December 2009 (T)43262023421-17

(T) = Telephone polls

2010ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%± %
26-28 January 2010 (T)40321633321-8
19-22 February 2010 (T)37321932221-5
19-22 March 2010 (T)35302123621-5
18-19 April (T)32283211303-4
23 April (T)36302341321-6
5 May (T)362927213 11-7
General election result (6 May)36.929.723.69.8-7
18-20 June (T)39311924231-8
23-25 July (T)4038141322*-2
10-12 Sept (T)373715332210
15-17 Oct (T)39361433311-3
12-14 Nov (T)363914342* 2+3
10-12 Dec (T)38391144411+1

 

 

2011ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%± %
21-24 January 2011 (T)33431323411+10
18-20 February 2011 (T)33431333311+10
11-13 March 2011 (T)37411033321+4
15-17 April 2011 (T)40409433*1 0
20-24 May 2011 (T)35421046211 +7
17-19 June 2011 (T)37391153311+2
16-18 July 2011 (T)32391155422+7
20-22 August 2011 (T)34401525311+6
10-12 September 2011 (T)35371353313+2
22-24 October 2011 (T)34381254411+4
19-21 November 2011 (T)34411244311+7
10-12 December 2011 (T)41391142211-2
2012ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%± %
21-23 January 2012 (T)3838124431*0
25-27 February 2012 (T)35411244211+6
17-19 March 2012 (T)36371135413+1
21-23 April 2012 (T)35381254411+3
12-14 May 2012 (T)3343953611+10
9-11 June 2012 (T) 31401055622+9
14-16 July 2012 (T)  314412535*1+13
11-13 August 2012 (T)3242114441+10 
15-17 September 2012 (T)304113384**+11
20-24 October 2012 (T)3343943612+10
10-13 November 2012 (T)3246944311+14
8-10 December 2012 (T)35449337**+9
2013ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%%
12-14 January 2013 (T)30438339*2+13
9-11 February 2013 (T)3042744911+12
9-11 March 2013 (T)2740 11 13  1  1  +13 
13-15 April 2013 (T)29 38 1015  * 1 +9 
 11-13 May 2013 (T)31 34 10  4613 +3 
 8-10 June 2013 (T) 3135 10 12 +4 
 13-15 July 2013 (T)29 40 10 12 +11 
 10-12 August 2013 (T) 30 40 10 2 6 11+10 
 7-9 September 2013 (T)3437 10 11 +3 
 12-15 October 2013 (T)35 35 10 
 9-11 November 2013 (T)32 38 +6 
 7-9 December 2013 (T) 3337 10  +4
2014ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%%
11-14 January 2014 (T)3039135311**+9
 1-3 February 2014 (T) 313812531002+7
 8-12 March 2014 (T)3235134511*1+3
 5-7 April 2014 (T)31 37 15 +6 
 10-12 May 2014 (T)31 34 11 +3 
 14-17 June 2014 (T)31 34 14 +3 
 12-15 July 2014 (T)32 35 12 +3 
 9 - 11 August 2014 (T)33337130
 6-9 September 2014 (T)34 33 15 -1 
 11-14 October 2014 (T)30 33 16 +3 
 8-10 November 2014 (T)32 29 14 -3 
 13-15 December 2014 (T)32 29 13 -3 

 

2015ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPBNPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%%
11-13 January 2015 (T)333484811*1+1
10-12 February 2015 (T)3436677901+2
 8-11 March 2015 (T)333484613*1+1
 12-15 April 2015 (T)333576810**+2
 26-29 April 2015 (T) 353087810*2-5
 5-6 May 2015 (T)363585511**-1
 General Election result (7 May) 36.930.4 7.9  5.33.8 12.6  ** -6.5
 14-16 June 2015 (T)39309768**-9
 18-20 July 2015 (T) 373110689-*-6
 19-22 September 2015 (T)39 34 -5 
 17-19 October 2015 (T)36321012 -4 
 14-17 November 2015 (T)41 34 -7 
 12-14 December (T)38 31 -7 

 

(T) = Telephone polls

2016ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%
23-25 January 2016 (T)4031754111-9
13-16 February 2016 (T)3933673121-6
 19-22 March 2016 (T) 36341063111 -2
 16-18 April 2016 (T) 383567311* -3
 14th - 16th May 2016 (T)3634865101-2
 11th - 14th June 2016 (T) 3534974101-1
 9th - 11th July 2016 (T) 363511648*-1
 13th - 15th August 2016 (T) 45347 4461-11
 10th - 14th September 2016 (T)40 34 6 4 59 1 -6
 14th - 17th October 2016 (T) 47297646*-18
 11th - 14th November 2016 (T) 42 33 10 537* -9
 10th - 12th December 2016 (T) 40 29 14 4 391-11

 

(T) = Telephone polls

2017ConLabLib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
GreenUKIPOtherLab lead
 %%%%%%%%
13-16 January 2017 (T)433111446*-12
10 - 14 February 2017 (T)402913649*-11
10 - 14 March 2017 (T) 43 30 13 -13 
21 - 25 April 2017 (T)4926136142-23
15 - 17 May 2017 (T)49347432*-15
30 May - 1 June 2017 (T)45407322*-5
6 - 7 June 2017 (T)443675241-8
 General Election result (8 June)43.5417.53.51.521-2.5
14 - 18 July 2017 (T)414293231+1
15 - 18 September 2017 (T)40449412*+4
27 October- 1 November 2017 (T)384095341+2

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