SNP out in front while the race for second place is too close to call - but 1 in 4 may still change their mind

Ipsos’ final 2026 Scottish Parliament election poll for STV News finds the SNP remain on course to win significantly more of the vote than any other party on 7th May – although the party’s vote share is down 4 points compared with the start of the campaign. 

Our headline estimate of constituency voting intention is: 

•    SNP: 35% (-4 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 26th – 31st March)
•    Labour: 20% (+5)
•    Reform UK: 18% (+3)
•    Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1)
•    Conservatives: 11% (no change)
•    Scottish Green Party: 2% (-5 points, reflecting that the Greens are standing candidates in 6 constituencies only)
•    Other: 3% (no change)

Our headline estimate of regional list voting intention is: 

•    SNP: 26% (-3 points)
•    Reform UK: 18% (+2)
•    Scottish Green Party: 17% (+1)
•    Labour: 15% (no change) 
•    Liberal Democrats: 11% (+2)
•    Conservatives: 10% (-3)
•    Other: 3% (no change) 

The SNP are comfortably in the lead on both constituency voting intentions, at 35%, and regional list voting intentions, at 26%. This would nonetheless be a weaker performance than at the 2021 election, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote and 40% of the regional list vote.

The race for second place on the constituency vote is too close to call, with Labour on 20% and Reform UK on 18%. Meanwhile the Conservatives, who were in second place in 2021, are trailing on 11%, tied with the Liberal Democrats.  

On the regional list vote, Reform UK are in second place on 18%. The Scottish Green Party are close on their heels on 17%, which, if replicated on polling day would be the party’s strongest ever performance on the regional list. If turnout is low, this may particularly impact the Scottish Greens, as younger voters – who are typically less likely to turn out on polling day than older voters are – are more likely to say they would cast their regional list vote for the Greens than for any other party.  

Labour are in fourth place on the regional list vote, on 15%, while the Conservatives are in sixth on 10%, behind the Liberal Democrats on 11%.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

“Our final poll of this Holyrood election campaign may dent the SNP’s confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority, since it shows the party’s share of the vote falling back slightly on both constituency and regional votes. Meanwhile the race for second place in voting intentions looks too close to call, with Scottish Labour narrowly ahead of Reform on the constituency vote but Reform outpacing Labour on the regional list vote – where the Greens also appear to be in contention, if they can get their voters to turn out. This could be the worst ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives if these numbers are replicated on polling day. But with 1 in 4 voters still saying they may yet change their mind, all the parties still have something to play for in the final day of campaigning.”

Vote switching

Two key factors that may influence the election result are turnout and last-minute vote switching. On both constituency and regional list votes, a quarter of voters (25% on the constituency vote and 26% on the list) say they may still change their mind before they vote. Reform UK’s support looks the firmest of any party’s, with 83% of Reform UK voters saying they’ve definitely decided to cast their constituency vote for the party, compared to 76% of SNP voters and 67% of Labour voters. 

Tactical voting

15% of those intending to vote for a party say they are doing so to try and keep another party out in their constituency, rather than because it is the party that most represents their views. The likelihood of tactical voting is highest among those who intend to vote Liberal Democrat, Labour or Conservative and lowest among those who intend to vote for Reform UK.
Levels of likely tactical voting are similar on the regional list, with 14% of likely voters saying they are doing so because the party they support is unlikely to gain additional regional MSPs so their vote is better used by voting for a different party. 

Notes:

•    Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,255 adults aged 16+ across Scotland, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected online between 1st and 4th May 2026. 
•    Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,351 panellists aged 16+ in Scotland were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election. 

The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:
o    Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
o    Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Scottish Parliament region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade, area deprivation, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2022 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
•    All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
•    Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.