Pulse Check - February 2025
February 2026
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Mind the trust gap
Over two thirds of Britons do not have confidence that the UK Government is running the country with integrity (69%), nor that they are running it properly, competently or seriously (68%) - and half think both Nigel Farage (50%) and Keir Starmer (53%) tell the truth not very often or never.
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All eyes on Andrew
Just 5% of Britons are favourable towards Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, with 82% unfavourable. 62% say they have been closely following recent developments about the release of the Epstein files, including information related to Peter Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. There are signs that recent revelations have damaged attitudes towards the Royals but it is unclear how long such damage will last.
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Swiping for the left, or the right?
Brits would find it most difficult to be in a relationship with someone who supported Reform UK (40%). They would find it easiest to be in a relationship with someone who supported the Greens (40%), Labour (39%) or the Lib Dems (36%).
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Concern for students
Majority of Brits (54%) think students in England shouldn’t be charged any interest rate on their student loans, +13 since May ‘23. The public are also concerned that students end up with high levels of debt from going to university, and that the cost of student loan repayments are preventing graduates from being able to achieve key life milestones.
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Testing Times for Starmer
Keir Starmer is entering one of the most precarious phases of his premiership. The fallout from the appointment (and resignation) of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador has put him under intense scrutiny, raising speculation about his leadership.
And the public has been paying attention. 62% of Britons say they have been closely following the release of the Epstein files, including information related to Peter Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, which is similar to numbers following speculation about Keir Starmer’s future. The story has well and truly popped the ‘Westminster bubble’ and cut through to the public.
It’s unsurprising therefore, that our recent polling shows 6 in 10 with an unfavourable opinion of Keir Starmer. His net favourability stands at -44, 17% favourable, 61% unfavourable).
As Keiran Pedley, UK Director of Politics at Ipsos puts it,
Keir Starmer’s position as Prime Minister is vulnerable. I certainly feel there’s a sense of political danger.
But for now, it seems, Starmer is holding on, but his grip on leadership may ultimately hinge on the local elections in May. Reform UK looms as a major competitor, particularly in areas Labour once considered safe. Whilst the Greens offer a compelling challenge from the left too. But, if there are significant Labour losses, there is no obvious replacement for Starmer in the public’s eyes. In head-to-head polling, the public is evenly split between Starmer and Farage on who they would prefer as Prime Minister, with Starmer often comparing favourably to potential alternatives..
Keiran Pedley says,
There’s no obvious slam dunk of a successor, and part of the reason why it's still not clear who would definitely replace him. There’s nothing in the polling that’s showing there is someone in the wings waiting to take over for him, so, it’s not guaranteed Starmer gets deposed or replaced, although it’s still difficult times ahead for him.
Today’s Gorton and Denton by-election underscores Labour’s fragile electoral standing, with early indications pointing to a battle between Reform and the Greens.
Starmer may be bruised, but for now, he remains standing. Whether the May elections prove decisive could determine not just his leadership, but Labour’s wider political trajectory.
