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Election 2001 Commentary: How Shy Are The Tories (And Labour And The Lib Dems?)
At the 1997 election, one of the most powerful forces behind Tony Blair's victory was "word of mouth" among ordinary voters. MORI tested the extent to which the general public were spreading the message of New Labour, and of the other main parties, as part of an adaptation of the Ipsos Excellence Model (MEM), originally designed to enable MORI's corporate clients to measure their relationships with their key stakeholders. We found that 10% of the adult population, more than four million people, said that they supported the Labour party so much that they would encourage others to vote for it without being asked; a further 21% would encourage others to vote Labour if asked for their opinion.
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Tony's Army
Four years ago some four million people, one elector in ten, enlisted in Tony's Army, saying that they supported the Labour Party and that they encouraged others to vote Labour without being asked. Only a quarter as many were canvassing others on behalf of John Major's Conservative Party.
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Times 2001 Campaign Polls Wave 1
MORI's first weekly poll for The Times of the 2001 election campaign
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General Election 2001
Opinion polls measure the electorate's intentions in votes, not in seats. We can — if nothing goes wrong — measure voting intention percentages directly, and would hope to be accurate within our margins of error. But projecting the number of seats that a given share of the votes would give, although it produces a better headline, involves much greater uncertainties, and we rarely have the information we need to produce such figures with anything approaching precision.
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General Election 2001 - Election Digest
Election Commentary - Votes and Seats
First campaign poll finds widening gap
Key public services deemed worse than in 1997
NOP/Daily Express election survey
Capital's business executives rate PM and Chancellor above Shadow counterparts
Pundits predict 143-seat majority
Voting Intentions in Scotland -
Read The Shares, Not The Gap
Two polls, both by NOP, are the first out of the gate in the general election. We can draw some lessons from how they are reported.
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General Election 2001 - Election Digest
Election Commentary - And They're Off...
Canvass Leaks Suggests Election Downturn for Tories
Two Negatives, but still positive for Labour
NOP/Powerhouse Poll: Tories Up -
General Election 2001
The election begins with the most recently published polls* by all the companies showing Labour's lead over the Tories slightly lower than was the case before the election was called in 1997: