Election 2001 Commentary: How Shy Are The Tories (And Labour And The Lib Dems?)

At the 1997 election, one of the most powerful forces behind Tony Blair's victory was "word of mouth" among ordinary voters. MORI tested the extent to which the general public were spreading the message of New Labour, and of the other main parties, as part of an adaptation of the Ipsos Excellence Model (MEM), originally designed to enable MORI's corporate clients to measure their relationships with their key stakeholders. We found that 10% of the adult population, more than four million people, said that they supported the Labour party so much that they would encourage others to vote for it without being asked; a further 21% would encourage others to vote Labour if asked for their opinion.

We asked the public the same questions again, in our poll for The Times this week [Times 2001 Campaign Polls]. There is considerably less enthusiasm this time -- not only for Labour, but for the other parties as well.

Q Thinking of the ... Party, please pick one statement from each section on this card according to which best reflects your behaviour and opinions with respect to the .... Party.

Source: MORI/The Times

Only 6% now say they would voluntarily advocate voting Labour -- though that is still three times as many as the 2% who would do the same for the Conservatives. If we total the first two options for each party, we find that only 43% of the public would encourage somebody else to vote for one of the three main parties, even if asked; in 1997 the corresponding figure was 56%.

At the other end of the scale, the Conservatives will be encouraged to note that there has been a significant fall in the number who would discourage somebody else from voting Tory, whereas both Labour and the Liberal Democrats fare fractionally worse than they did in 1997. Nevertheless, the anti-Conservatives still outnumber the pro-Conservatives -- by five-to-one on "without being asked", and by more than two-to-one if we include those who would only give opinions if asked for them; by contrast, both Labour and the Liberal Democrats come out on the right side of the ledger on either criterion.

Further evidence of Tory weakness, or perhaps just of low morale, comes from cross-analysing this data by voting intention. Of the already small band currently intending to vote Conservative, only 39% would encourage somebody else to do the same (and only 7% would give such advice without being asked); but 50% of current Labour voters would advise others to vote Labour, including 15% who would need no prompting to do so. The Lib Dems, though, are as shy as the Tories -- only 39% of the present supporters would advocate voting for the party, and just 3% would do so if not asked for advice.

If three in five of those who admit supporting the Tories still wouldn't encourage somebody else to do the same, what hope does William Hague have of closing the gap?