General Election 2001

What will be the main issues of the election of 2001?

The "expert pundits", in the most recent Kalends poll, overwhelmingly expect an election on the economy. Maybe they are expecting Blair to take a cue from the USA, where many blamed Al Gore's defeat on his failing to make sufficient political capital out of economic prosperity.

If the voters have their choice, it will be the health service and education. In MORI's poll last week for The Sun, the public were asked (without being prompted with a list) which issues they thought would have been very important in helping them decide which party to vote for if the election had been held last Thursday (3 May, the date when the election would probably have been held but for the Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak). A third of the public mentioned health care, and three in ten education; no other single issue occurred to more than one in ten.

The Tories, to judge from their opening campaigning, are clearly hoping to fight an election on taxation and Europe. These are not high on the public's list of priorities at the moment -- only 10% in the MORI/Sun survey mentioned tax, and just 5% Europe. Of course, the answers to last week's poll depended on what was "top-of-the-mind" when it was conducted, and that in turn is very dependent on the news coverage. Agenda setting is a vital part of party strategy in a modern election campaign, and if these are the issues on which the Tories believe they can win votes it is up to them to ensure they raise its salience in the public mind. But sometimes that's easier said than done, even when the public is receptive -- remember "The War of Jennifer's Ear" in the 1992 election, when the media's insistence on reporting the conduct of Labour's campaign rather than its substance effectively derailed their attempt to achieve any serious debate on the NHS.

But will Europe play well for the Tories anyway? This morning's Gallup/Telegraph poll found that 45% of the public think Labour more closely represents their views on Europe, while only 40% think the same of the Tories. This even though 69% say they would vote against joining the Euro in an early referendum.

As for tax, the Tories will depend on convincing the public that current spending levels are not delivering adequate public services, and that therefore taxes should be cut. There will be sympathy for the first proposition: NOP's poll for Powerhouse published yesterday found 36% think health services have deteriorated over the last four years while only 22% think they have improved, by 47% to 19% they think public transport has got worse, and by 28% to 21% they think the same about the police service, three policy areas the Tories have featured in their "You paid the taxes..." poster campaign. But are there votes in it? As we found in January (in a poll for the Sunday Telegraph), though half the public think taxes have gone up since 1997, more than twice as many think they would rise as think they would fall if the Tories were to win.

If the Tories are hoping to make gains in this election, they must find a way to get the substance of their argument across.