General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Election Commentary - Election Issues

The "expert pundits", in the most recent Kalends poll, overwhelmingly expect an election on the economy. If the voters have their choice, it will be the health service and education.

MORI/Times Poll Gallup / Daily Telegraph Election Poll FT Focus Pocus The Tories: Portillo And Party Ideology Self-Selecting Poll Of Doctors Scottish Key Marginals Survey Findings

MORI/Times poll

Full details of the MORI poll conducted for The Times on 8 May are now available in our Research Archive.

Gallup / Daily Telegraph Election Poll

The latest Gallup / Daily Telegraph poll puts Labour on 49%, the Tories on 32%, and the Liberal Democrats on 13%, a Labour lead of 17 points. (Though published on the same day as the MORI/Times poll, the Gallup poll was conducted in the week up to the election date announcement, whereas the MORI poll was conducted afterwards; Gallup's figures are in line with the two NOP polls that have been published covering part of the same period.)

Asked which of the main two parties more closely represented their own views on Europe, 45% chose Labour, and 40% chose the Tories. More than three times as many Labour voters - 13% against 4% - believe Tory policies on Europe more closely represent their own views as vice versa (Tories choosing Labour polices). Almost seven in ten (69%) said they would vote against joining the single European currency if there were a referendum in the next few months; 24% would vote in favour.

Almost half, 49%, opted for the Labour Party as the best party to handle the economy, compared to 36% who chose the Tories.

Asked who would make the best Prime Minister, 48% opted for Tony Blair, compared to 22% and 14% for William Hague and Charles Kennedy respectively.

Source: The Daily Telegraph, 10 May 2001 Technical details: Gallup interviewed 1,002 adults across Britain by telephone on 2-8 May 2001.

FT Focus Pocus

The Financial Times reports on a focus group of floating voters from key marginals. They state that of the two-fifths of the sample who had made up their minds over who they would vote for, two-thirds have chosen Labour.

However, as the Financial Times did not point out, the numbers involved are far too few to be suitable for quantitative analysis, and the findings should not be regarded as an election opinion poll.

Source: The Financial Times, 10 May 2001 Technical details: Focus group of 76 floating voters, carried out by Banks Hoggins O'Shea FCB last week.

The Tories: Portillo And Party Ideology

Six in ten voters believe that Michael Portillo is plotting to replace William Hague as leader of the Conservative Party after the General Election, whilst only 12% believe he is really loyal to Mr Hague, according to the most recently released findings from an NOP/Daily Express survey.

Asked about the political slant of William Hague's party, 27% of respondents thought the Tories too right wing, 7% thought it too left wing, whilst 28% thought the party had the right mix. Among AB voters the proportion who think the Conservatives are too right wing rises to 41%.

Source: The Daily Express, 10 May 2001. Technical details: NOP interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 voters between 4-7 May 2001.

Self-Selecting Poll Of Doctors

The Daily Mail and some other newspapers report a survey of doctors' political opinions conducted by the magazine Hospital Doctor. However, this was a self-selecting sample from a write-in poll of the magazine's readers, and has no statistical claim to reliability.

Source: The Daily Mail, 10 May 2001 Technical details: Self-selected "voodoo poll".

Scottish Key Marginals Survey Findings

A survey of voters in Scotland's six most marginal seats points to only one change in the party positions from the 1997 election result, according to a Scottish Opinion survey for the Daily Herald.

The newspaper reported that, if the respondents' intentions were borne out in the election, Labour would lose Stirling to the SNP, but would hold Ayr, Eastwood and Edinburgh Pentlands, while the SNP would hold Tayside North and Perth.

However, a total of only 744 were interviewed across the six constituencies.

Source: The Daily Record, 10 May 2001 Technical details: 744 people across the six constituencies interviewed by Scottish Opinion by telephone between 4-7 May 2001.