General Election 2001

The election begins with the most recently published polls* by all the companies showing Labour's lead over the Tories slightly lower than was the case before the election was called in 1997:

Please bear in mind that these polls are not predictions. They measure the present. (If you want to know the future, buy a crystal ball.) The electorate can, and do, change their minds during election campaigns; after all, that is what election campaigns are for, and why the parties spend millions of pounds on them. Our panel survey for the Evening Standard found that in 1997 the equivalent of eleven-and-a-half million voters changed their minds during the six-week campaign, either switching between parties or 'churning' in or out of don't know/won't vote.

Of course, Labour's lead fell during the 1997 campaign; but that was a six-week campaign, half as long again as this year's will be, which may more than offset an average three-point improvement in the gap. But, in any case, don't watch the gap, watch the shares.

The key figure that dictated the majority in 1997, and will probably do so in 2001, is the Conservative share of the vote; that will be the broad indicator of how many seats each party will win in the Conservative-Labour marginals. Labour's share may fall as in 1997 with the Liberal Democrats benefiting, which would reduce the Labour lead. But, far from being a good sign for the Tories that would simply indicate that they will lose out again in the Tory-Lib Dem marginals as well, with Labour supporters voting tactically.

Suppose the result in 1997 had been exactly as the figures in that last MORI poll before the campaign. If there had been perfect national uniform swing, Labour would have won 438 seats instead of the 419 they did win -- a modest improvement in their majority. But on the same basis, the Tories would have won 180 seats even though the Labour lead at 21-points was much more than Labour actually achieved their haul in seats would only have been a little higher; in fact they only won 165. The Tories did worse than the pre-election polls would have suggested, even though the Labour lead fell, because the fall in the lead didn't significantly cut Labour strength in the Con-Lab marginals, it merely added Lib Dem votes in the Con-Lib Dem marginals where a Labour vote would have been wasted anyway.

If the Tories can increase their 31.4% share of the vote, they will probably gain seats and Mr Blair's majority will fall. If not, not.

* This does not include the NOP/Powerhouse poll released on 8 May, which should arguably not be regarded as a pre-election poll, since the election date has been unofficially reported as confirmed throughout the media since the weekend.