More Labour supporters are now galvanised to turn out to vote than at the beginning of the election, providing a boost to Labour's potential election victory on May 5.
In research conducted in February and March this year, on behalf of Leonard Cheshire, MORI reveals the importance of the disabled vote to the forthcoming general election. In these surveys, over half of disabled respondents said they would consider switching their vote if the policies of their preferred party were disability unfriendly. As turnout may well be one of the key determinants of the outcome of the election, the political parties will take this seriously, as disabled voters, in these surveys, were more likely than the electorate at large to say they would be voting come 5th May.
MORI's first election special research for the Observer and Sunday Mirror demonstrates the importance that turnout could have in the general election on 5th May. In this research, conducted on 7-9 April, 61% of the electorate say they are absolutely certain to vote — this is the highest figure measured by MORI since this question was first regularly asked in November 2002. Crucially, during this time, many more Labour supporters told us they were certain to vote, compared with the weekend before, which means that at present Labour have a comfortable lead over the Conservatives.
MORI's latest election poll, conducted over the weekend exclusively for The Financial Times, reveals that among 55% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party now have a five point lead over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 21%.
