Republicans and independents are feeling more threatened

The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week.

Why we asked: As the Trump administration enacts their agenda at breakneck speed, a lot is changing politically and geopolitically. To some, it feels like five years ago with a high level of uncertainty – maybe even more so. For the first years of the pandemic, Ipsos ran a segmentation called the IPAC. It asked a battery of questions to gauge how America was feeling in the moment. In the last wave, we piloted a modified version about our political climate. We ask three questions. One is about the level of personal threat people feel about the political climate. Then we asked a two-part question, again adapted from the IPAC, looking at how uncertain people feel because of the polices of the federal government, and how satisfied with the federal government.

What we found: In the last wave we saw “bad-days-of-COVID”-levels of threat felt by the Democrats. This wave, that has increased overall by 6 points. Now one in three Americans feel a high or very high level of threat. We’re now in even thirds between high threat/moderate threat/low threat. That increase was partly driven by a 5 point increase in the Republican threat level, which is still small (15%), but that’s up 50%. More striking is the jump among independents, who saw their threat level double to 30%. Half of Democrats fall into the high threat group.

On the certainty vs. satisfaction scale, something interesting is going on. Since our last wave just two weeks ago, certainty and uncertainty have flipped. Last wave it was 45% uncertain, now it’s 54% uncertain. Like the threat level, this jump is driven by Republicans and independents. But nearly every demographic split posted some increase in the level of uncertainty.

What’s interesting is that, at the same time, nearly every demographic also posted either flat or somewhat higher levels of satisfaction. Overall, the cluster moved up and to the left from last wave. It will be interesting to watch this over time.

More insights from this wave of the Ipsos Consumer Tracker:

Americans are feeling much less confident about their economic status

It's not just eggs: Americans feel prices are higher on most goods

Many Americans are losing faith in the safety of air travel

Only half of men think feminism benefits both sexes

The Ipsos Care-o-Meter: What does America know about vs. what does America care about