A Trump-Biden rematch is still too close to call

Washington, DC, October 6, 2023 – Nearly one year out from the 2024 Presidential election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a too-close-to-call race, according to a new Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted in early October. These results hold true in a hypothetical matchup in which now-Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent. Meanwhile, although most Americans believe vaccines are safe for children and adults, half say they would be more likely to support a candidate who questions the safety of vaccines.

Key Findings:

• In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Biden (35%) and Trump (35%) are essentially tied in a 2-way race. In a three-way race between Biden (31%), Trump (33%) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%), Biden and Trump remain too close to call.

• Most Americans view both Biden (56%) and Trump (56%) unfavorably (40% view Trump and Biden favorably). Kamala Harris also has a negative rating, with 58% saying they view her unfavorably and just 35% view her favorably. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen slightly more favorably, with 48% viewing him favorably, 38% viewing him unfavorably, and 14% saying they don’t know who he is.
• About four in five Americans view vaccines in general as safe for children (78%) and adults (77%). But, Americans are split on whether they would be more or less likely to support a presidential candidate who questions whether vaccines are safe (50% are more likely, 50% are less likely). More Republicans say they are more likely to support such a candidate (63%) compared to Democrats (42%) or independents (41%).
• Most Americans agree that that the U.S. must support democratic countries when they are under attack by non-democratic countries (61%), and 52% are more likely to support a presidential candidate who continues to support Ukraine with military aid.
  

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 3-4, 2023, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 437 Democrats, 368 Republicans, and 111 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.3 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 6.3 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 11.4 percentage points for independents.   

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Annaleise Lohr
Director, US
Public Affairs
[email protected]

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