August 2023: consumer confidence varies widely across regions

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index is down 0.2 point from last month to 47.4. This marks the third consecutive month without a significant month-over-month change for the index. Among 29 economies measured, five show significant gains in consumer sentiment while six show a notable decline. In a reversal of last month, the global Current and Investment indices are both down by around half a point, while the Expectations index is now up by around half a point. The one constant remains the global Jobs index, which is virtually unchanged for the third consecutive month.

Sentiment decreased most of all in Turkey, which fell by a staggering 7.4 points since last month amid a rise in the already high inflation levels as well as the weakening of the Turkish lira. Sentiment in Turkey has fallen nearly 11 points since May, and it now sits at its lowest point since this time last year.

Consumer confidence this month varies widely across regions. Sentiment is up in many European countries, including Spain (+3.7 points), Great Britain (+3.4 points), and France (+2.5 points). In contrast, consumer confidence is down in North America, as both Canada (-2.7 points) and the U.S. (-2.2 points) declined by at least two points this month. Sentiment varies across Asia, as both Thailand (-4.5 points) and South Korea (-2.9 points) show sharp declines, while India (+3.1 points) is up significantly.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 21,000 adults under the age of 75 from 29 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between July 21 and August 4, 2023.

Consumer sentiment in 29 countries

Among the 29 countries, Indonesia (64.7) continues to hold the highest National Index score this month. India (60.0) joins Indonesia as one of the only countries with a National Index score of 60 or higher.

Eight other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Singapore (58.0), Brazil (57.9), Mexico (56.4), the Netherlands (52.7), Sweden (52.3), the U.S. (52.2), Thailand (51.5), and Great Britain (50.1). Of note, Sweden sits above the 50-point mark in consecutive months for the first time in a year.

In contrast, six countries show a National Index below the 40-point mark: Chile (39.5), South Korea (38.8), Japan (38.2), Argentina (37.0), Hungary (32.1), and Turkey (28.3).

Compared to 12 months ago, Australia (-4.3), Canada (-3.4), and France (-3.3) are the only countries to show a significant drop in consumer sentiment. Twelve countries show significant increases, most of all in Brazil (+10.8) and Mexico (+9.4).

Trends

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index (based on all 29 countries surveyed) currently reads at 47.4, showing stability (-0.2 point) for the third consecutive month. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries” tracked since March 2010, it would read at 45.3.

The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, shows a decline across the 29 countries of 0.5 point to 37.6, reversing last month’s gains. This month ends a streak of four consecutive months in which the index had significant month-over-month increases. Seven countries show a significant month-over-month gain (at least 2 points) in their Current index, while ten countries show a significant loss.  

The Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’ perception of the investment climate, records a 29-country average decrease of 0.6 point since last month to 39.6. Similar to the Current index, this month’s loss erased gains made last month. Six countries show a significant gain in their Investment index, and ten countries show significant losses.

The Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer expectations about future economic conditions, shows an uptick of 0.6 point this month and sits at 56.6. In total, nine countries show significant gains in their Expectations index, compared to just three that show significant losses.

The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, continues to show little change (-0.1 point) and sits at 57.1 this month. Just four countries show significant gains in their Jobs index, while eight countries show significant losses.

Of note, Turkey and Thailand show significant declines (of at least 2 points) across all four sub-indices. In contrast, Spain is the only country to show significant month-over-month gains across all four sub-indices.