How Americans, Canadians and Mexicans feel about Trump’s trade war
No pain, no gain?
U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to inflict more economic pressure on Canada, Mexico and several other countries in a bid to make ground on his Make America Great Again (MAGA) ambitions.
The MAGA leader has changed his mind on the amount and start date of tariffs against his Northern and Southern neighbors multiple times, but is now saying that April 2 will be “Liberation Day.”
Below, we dive into the heated reaction of Canadians, the cool-headed approach of Mexicans and the divisions among Americans amid the burgeoning trade war.
1. Inflation nations. High prices continue to be top of mind as the possibility of more tariffs and counter-tariffs loom.
Inflation is now seen as the No. 1 worry in seven of 29 countries in Ipsos’ monthly What Worries the World polling, including in Canada and the U.S.
Cost-of-living concern stayed elevated in Canada (48%,-one point) and America (43%, +one pt) month-over-month. Given that the details of Trump’s plans keep changing some may be taking a wait-and-see approach.
Inflation worry in Mexico rose more steeply in the wake of the tariff war, going up five points in a single month to 35%.
2. Gloomy mood. The economies of all three countries may hang in the balance, but for now people seem to be holding their breath.
Mexicans remain split with 51% saying the current economic situation in their country is good versus 49% who say it’s bad, unchanged month-over-month. The money mood in Canada was, and remains, grimmer with almost three-quarters (74%, -two points) saying the national economic situation is bad. Ditto for the U.S., where 64% (-one point) say the economic situation is bad amid Trump’s seemingly ever-evolving policies.
3. Ruffled feathers. Like Canada geese the Canadian people can appear refined and restrained … unless you threaten their habitat.
At the start of 2025, 43% of Canucks thought the 51st state suggestions shouldn’t be treated as serious. Then, Trump was sworn in on January 20 and pledged to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.” Suddenly, Canadians and many others weren’t laughing anymore.
By late January/early February two-thirds (67%) of people in Canada said they would avoid U.S.-made goods and a similar proportion (66%) said they would avoid travelling south of the border for the duration of Trump's term. Baby Boomers* were the most likely to say they would use their substantial spending power to push back.
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who just called a snap election and is now seen as the best federal party leader to get the best deal for Canada, has rolled out an ad with Canuck comedian Mike Myers encouraging possible voters to get their elbows up.
Mike Colledge, President of ESG for Ipsos in Canada, says the growing elbows up (a defensive hockey term) and "Buy Canadian" movements don't surprise him as:
Canadians are not responding to the tariffs. They are responding to the President’s comments regarding the annexation of Canada, The tariff and trade dispute is a costly nuisance. The threats to make Canada the 51st state are seen as an insult.
4. Keeping calm and carrying on. America’s neighbour to the south is taking a different tack so far.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has opted to keep a cool head and Ipsos polling in Mexico in early February finds almost two in three (64%) approved of how she was handling policies coming out of the White House.
And while that polling found 60% of Mexicans said they would stop consuming products from U.S. companies if Trump's policies were implemented, Eugenia Marbec, Senior Client Officer for Ipsos in Latin America, says her compatriots look to have followed Sheinbaum's composed approach:
The boycott as a generalised movement has not been put into practice. However, we have seen great awareness among the population about the announcements, especially related to tariffs and mass deportations.
5. The divided state of America. Whether the MAGA leader is crazy like a fox — or as Carney has called Trump’s annexation dreams plain old “crazy” — is yet another polarising issue in the U.S.
Since returning to the Oval Office on January 20 Trump's trade war has shaken Wall Street and some Americans.
The Republican president's job approval rating has stayed relatively steady, now at 44%. But three in five (61%) Americans think the cost of living is on the wrong track and 57% say Trump's moves to shake up the economy are too erratic.
Whether Americans support the President’s trade war depends largely on party affiliation. A very strong majority (84%) of Democrats agree “increasing tariffs on imported goods will do more harm than good” vs. just 24% of Republicans. And 58% of Republicans think “it’s a good idea for the U.S. to charge higher tariffs on imported goods even if prices increase” vs. a mere 6% of Democrats.
And 76% of Republicans now think the U.S. is heading in right direction, up from just 10% before the GOP swept back into power in the November 2024 election, while only 20% of Democrats say the same (well down from 62% pre-election).
Trump recently wouldn’t predict whether he thinks there will be a recession this year, but he appears to believe any pain will ultimately lead to real gains for Americans.
The weeks and months ahead will ultimately prove whether “Liberation Day” results in economic glory for the U.S. or an economic disaster that didn’t need to happen.
Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.
* Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965).
