The factors driving anti-incumbent anger
During tough times people look for someone to blame.
The “Terrible Twenties,” which started with the COVID-19 pandemic and was followed by painful inflation, have left a bitter taste in voters’ mouths.
And in 2024, they expressed their dissatisfaction with their country’s leadership at just about every opportunity; that looks likely to continue.
This week, Germany holds its much-anticipated election, with Australia, Canada, Chile and Romania not far behind. With majorities in 22 out of 29 countries telling us their country is on the wrong track it’s likely politicians and parties seeking re-election will continue to be the focus of the fury during 2025.
Below, we dive into the feelings fueling the anti-incumbent wave that some populist leaders are riding all the way to the halls of power.
1. Disillusionment and Decline. In 2024, the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) helped now-U.S. President Donald Trump beat then-U.S. President Joe Biden by pithily tapping into the nostalgic vein that run through society.
Seeing time gone by through rose-colored glasses reaches well beyond the U.S., where 66% said they would like their country to “be the way it used to be” with the Ipsos Global Trends report finding a majority in 40 of 50 markets agree with this sentiment.
There’s also a persistent feeling, around the world, that one’s country is “in decline” (57% on average globally) and that society “is broken” (58%). Plus, almost three-quarters (70% on average across 50 markets) are disillusioned with the state we’re in.
Populism’s nostalgic tentacles reach well beyond the U.S. Close to three in four (73%) people in France say their country “used to be a better a place than it is now”, the highest level in a decade. French politicians, like others across the globe, are paying the price for the feeling that things have declined under their watch. The country had four prime ministers in 2024 and French President Emmanuel Macron is now in a much weaker position after calling a snap election last summer.
2. Post-pandemic Economic Hangover. The first half of this decade hit consumers in the wallet and bruises remain.
In January 2020, right before a global pandemic was declared, sentiment across the G7 countries was riding relatively high, including in Great Britain where 46% said the economic situation in their country was good. In January 2025, just 24% of Brits said the national economy was good. Voters are not amused.
The U.K. has had four prime ministers since 2019. And while there was initially optimism when new PM Keir Starmer was elected in July 2024, the mood has already soured with many now blaming the Labour government for the stagnant economy.
Meanwhile, as Germans prepare to head to the ballot box on February 23 only 26% say the economic situation is good – the worst score for Germany in a decade.
As the second half of this decade starts to unfold people across the G7 appear to be yearning for the calmer pre-pandemic economy.
3. Coming of Age in the Age of DEI. The pandemic not only shook up the economy, but also society at large.
A surge of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs took hold in the early 2020s, infiltrating schools and workplaces just as Generation Zers* were maturing. Young men and women have reacted very differently to these so-called ‘woke’ times.
A Gen Z gender gap on social issues emerged in international poll after poll during 2024 on everything from inequality issues to LGBT+ rights to the idea that the women’s movement has gone so far "we are discriminating against men.”
President Trump has credited his Gen Z son, Barron, with encouraging him to go on Joe Rogan’s popular podcast to speak directly to like-minded young men about rolling back DEI efforts.
And north of the U.S. border, more liberal-minded leaders such as Justin Trudeau, Canada’s Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, have found singing the praises of diversity has turned from a strength to a weakness as 2025 looks to become the year cancel culture gets well and truly cancelled.
4. Still Feeling the Pinch. While cancelling problematic people may be on the way out, many seem to want to cancel their economic situation.
Inflation remains the No. 1 worry in the world and a strong majority (79% on average across 33 countries) predict prices in their country will increase faster than people's incomes in 2025. And 67% tell us the economy of their country is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful.
While income inequality is nothing new, the surge in global inflation in 2022 has made life even harder for working-class people. The November 2024 edition of the Ipsos Cost of Living Monitor bears this out, highlighting how those in lower- and middle-income households, have consistently struggled financially in recent years.
A majority (69% on average across 32 countries) point the finger at the policies of their national government for the prolonged financial pain. And populist politicians looking to oust incumbents are also laying the blame at the feet of the politicians who have presided over the cost-of-living crisis.
5. What is To Be Done about Immigration? Germany’s economy has seriously struggled lately and its current leader may soon pay the price.
The country’s center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a no-confidence vote late last year after the country entered recession, but he’s hoping to win a second term later this week despite the gloom.
Almost eight in 10 (79%) people in Germany say their country is on the wrong track, with immigration control seen as the top issue. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has tried to capitalise on this anti-immigrant sentiment after tech titan/Trump acolyte Elon Musk said Germans need to “move on” from “past guilt” for the country’s Nazi past. Scholz has tried to push back against Musk and the AfD as he attempts to hold on to his job.
6. Crime Fighters. Alongside anti-immigrant sentiment runs fear about public safety. Post-pandemic, there was a focus on what Musk dubbed an urban “doom loop” but Chile is currently the most worried out of 29 countries as it battles organised crime under the leadership of President Gabriel Boric.
Crime & violence is now seen as the No. 1 worry by 66% of people in Chile and 69% think their country is on the wrong track.
The Leftist President, only elected in late 2021, can’t run for a second term under current laws after. So, on November 16 Chileans will signal if they want the Latin American country’s new leader to tack left, right or centrist as it struggles to get crime under control.
At a global level, concern about crime and violence rose in 18 of 29 countries year-over-year and is currently the No. 2 issue, right behind inflation. And in North America, President Trump has paused tariffs against Mexico and Canada, in part, as long as his neighboring leaders help him win his wars on illegal immigration and fentanyl.
7. Oh, Canada! President Trump has become a serious thorn in the side of his Northern neighbor since being sworn in on January 20.
But PM Justin Trudeau, who dealt with the MAGA leader during his first presidential term, won’t be scrapping with President Trump much longer as he announced last month he will step down ahead of a federal election.
Canadians must head to the ballot box by October 20, but even with the increasingly unpopular PM Trudeau soon gone, the Liberals still lag behind populist Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada. Whomever emerges as the next Prime Minister of Canada will have to grapple with President Trump’s repeated tariff threats and suggestions that Canada become the 51st state, something which close to half of younger Canadians are open to.
Whether people in Canada and other countries will opt for an iconoclast like Trump during what’s shaping up to be another tough year remains to be seen. What’s already clear is that the appetite for a brash politician has stayed relatively steady throughout the decade so far as almost half (46% on average globally) agreed that to fix their country they needed a strong leader willing to break the rules in 2019, rising slightly to 49% globally by 2024.
As Clifford Young, President of Public Affairs Ipsos in the U.S., and Sarah Feldman, Editorial Director, Public Affairs, Ipsos in the U.S., point out:
"Populism is a connective thread throughout each discrete electoral event, and an organising force that will be with us for some time."
Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.
* Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965).