The state of the special relationship between the U.K. and U.S.

While other world leaders have been sweating it out when visiting the White House this year U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer kept calm and carried on. 

Hand-delivering a letter from King Charles III inviting U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump to Windsor Castle likely didn’t hurt. 

Now, on the eve of that unprecedented second state visit, we take a look at the shape of the U.S.-U.K. special relationship, as well as how Starmer and Trump are faring as both leaders head into the final months of 2025.

1. Pomp and protest. Like any politician Trump has his fans and his foes.

Some  of those foes, namely the Stop Trump Coalition, are planning on holding protests this week, just as they did when the Make America Great Again (MAGA) leader visited Scotland earlier this summer.

While protests may make it look like all Brits are anti-Trump, the actual picture is more nuanced. 

The latest Ipsos UK Political Pulse polling in mid-August finds 59% of people across Great Britain now hold an unfavorable view of the American president, while close to one-quarter (23%) hold a favorable view. 

The devil, though, is in the details. 

Almost half (49%) of those who voted for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party in the last general election are fans of Trump, while 30% aren’t. The two populist politicians align on many issues with Farage recently hosting a rally dotted with Make Britain Great Again hats, as well as visiting Trump in the U.S.

Followers of the other main parties have a less than great view of Trump. Just over two in three (68%) of those who voted for Starmer’s Labour party in 2024 are anti-Trump as are just over half (51%) of Conservative party voters.

2.  Ruffled feathers. 

Like the swans in Kensington Gardens the British people can appear quite placid, but peck them and they’ll likely peck back.

Our global polling in the wake of Trump’s inauguration, amid his America First policies and annexation and tariff threats, found his country’s reputation took a hit, including among Brits.

Some don’t seem to be amused.

Zooming out, America’s reputation slipped with 46% (on average across 20 countries*) saying America is a positive influencer in the spring of 2025, down from 59% who said the same in the fall of 2024.

“President Trump has been active in putting a very U.S.-centric foreign policy into place since taking office in January,” says Matt Carmichael, What the Future Editor for Ipsos in the U.S. “The most salient example is with tariffs being levied on competitors and allies alike, but there are other realignments in terms of America’s relationships with other nations. It shouldn’t be surprising that other markets are reacting strongly to the changes.”

In late September/early October 2024 right before Trump won the presidential race on November 5, 2024, 56% of people in Great Britain predicted the U.S. would have a positive influence on world affairs over the next decade. By late March/early April 2025 that had fallen 17 percentage points to 39% — now just a bit higher than Brits’ view of China and Saudi Arabia (both at 34%).

The last time the Brits were this disillusioned with America was back in September 2020 near the end of Trump’s first term when 39% also thought the U.S. would have a positive influence.

3. American exceptionalism wanes a bit. 

Even some Americans are feeling less sure about their place on the world stage.

The proportion of people in the U.S. who predict their country will have a positive influence fell 14pp to 63% in the spring of 2025 compared to the fall of 2024.

But, like many issues these days, sentiment runs down party lines. Less than half (45%, -38pp) of Democrats see their country as a positive influencer, while almost nine in 10 (85%, +9pp) of Trump’s Republican party supporters see America as having a positive role in the world.

Americans’ view of the Brits has stayed more stable.

This spring 72% (-4pp since fall 2024) of people in the U.S. think Great Britain will have a positive influence on world affairs — tying with Canada (-7pp) for the top spot.

4. Divided state of America. 

Whether one sees the U.S. as closer to heaven or hell appears to mainly depend on which party one supports. 

On the eve of Republican nominee Trump beating then-Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris 62% of Democrats thought their country was heading in the right direction, by this August that had fallen to 15%. 

The pattern is inverted for Republicans. 

Right before Trump won a second, non-consecutive, term a mere 10% of Republicans said the U.S. was going in the right direction, by August that had surged to 76%.

“Polarization in the U.S. is the result of several compounding ongoing trends. While there is a lot of common ground and shared values, there is a lot of strong disagreement in how those values should be implemented,” says Carmichael. 

“There is growing racial and ethnic diversity, shifting power structures, economic inequality made worse by economic uncertainty and ongoing responses to the trauma of the pandemic. All of that is exacerbated by disinformation campaigns from outside and a fragmented media landscape within.  In somewhat turbulent times, the incumbent party tends to get blamed — hence few incumbents winning globally in 2024’s historic election year.”

5. Polarization an international phenomenon. 

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Keir Starmer is also grappling with a polarized populace.

Close to eight out of 10 (78%) Brits who voted to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016 hold an unfavorable view of Starmer.

Meanwhile, those who voted against Brexit have a more mixed take on their country’s leader with just over one in three (36%) having a favorable view of Starmer and 39% holding an unfavorable opinion of the PM.

While the Brexit referendum was almost a decade ago now many of the hot button referendum issues, namely immigration and the economy, are currently seen as pain points for Great Britain, five years after officially leaving the EU in early 2020.

The upcoming state visit is seen as an opportunity for both countries to strengthen ties between the two long-time allies, as well as a chance for Starmer and Trump to burnish their images.

Starmer has been able to develop a positive working relationship with Trump, including securing a trade agreement with the U.S.

He hasn’t been able to develop the same positivity in the British public much lately, though.

Only 22% of Brits overall currently have a favorable view of their PM, down 16 points  from 38% who held a favorable view in the wake of the Labour leader winning and taking office in July 2024. His personal ratings, and those of his government, are some of the lowest Ipsos has recorded for an administration one year into office.

In comparison, Trump, elected in November 2024, currently has 40% of all Americans approving of his job as president down seven points compared to when he was inaugurated in January 2025.

As summer turns to fall (or autumn as the King would say), Starmer and Trump now have an opportunity to further solidify their special relationship … and perhaps up their approval ratings while they’re at it.

Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.

* Change for 20-country average is based on the countries which were in all editions of the Ipsos for the Halifax Security Forum polling.