The Sunday polls sweepstakes have the three horses at the starting gate, and ... off they go. At the first furlong they are neck and neck, with NOP running on the pages of the Sunday Times at 49% for the favourites, Labour, 32% for the also rans, the Tory Party; ICM in The Observer (handicapped) is nearly level, with 48% for Labour, 32 (again) for the Tories, while MORI is running somewhat stronger for Labour at 51%, with the Tories at 31%. NOP and MORI show the Liberal Democrats lagging at 13% while ICM, as usual, has them up two, at 15%. They were also at 13% in the starting race last week in the first and before this morning only measure of form, MORI in the Times on Wednesday, with fieldwork entirely taken after the Prime Minister fired the starting gun last week.
At the 1997 election, one of the most powerful forces behind Tony Blair's victory was "word of mouth" among ordinary voters. MORI tested the extent to which the general public were spreading the message of New Labour, and of the other main parties, as part of an adaptation of the Ipsos Excellence Model (MEM), originally designed to enable MORI's corporate clients to measure their relationships with their key stakeholders. We found that 10% of the adult population, more than four million people, said that they supported the Labour party so much that they would encourage others to vote for it without being asked; a further 21% would encourage others to vote Labour if asked for their opinion.
Four years ago some four million people, one elector in ten, enlisted in Tony's Army, saying that they supported the Labour Party and that they encouraged others to vote Labour without being asked. Only a quarter as many were canvassing others on behalf of John Major's Conservative Party.
Election Commentary - Votes and Seats
First campaign poll finds widening gap
Key public services deemed worse than in 1997
NOP/Daily Express election survey
Capital's business executives rate PM and Chancellor above Shadow counterparts
Pundits predict 143-seat majority
Voting Intentions in Scotland
