Politics

Two polls, both by NOP, are the first out of the gate in the general election. We can draw some lessons from how they are reported.

Opinion polls measure the electorate's intentions in votes, not in seats. We can — if nothing goes wrong — measure voting intention percentages directly, and would hope to be accurate within our margins of error. But projecting the number of seats that a given share of the votes would give, although it produces a better headline, involves much greater uncertainties, and we rarely have the information we need to produce such figures with anything approaching precision.

Election Commentary - And They're Off...
Canvass Leaks Suggests Election Downturn for Tories
Two Negatives, but still positive for Labour
NOP/Powerhouse Poll: Tories Up

The election begins with the most recently published polls* by all the companies showing Labour's lead over the Tories slightly lower than was the case before the election was called in 1997:

In last week's column I set out some of the evidence that suggests that the turnout in the forthcoming election may be even lower than in 1997. However, one aspect that I didn't address was the political impact of a low turnout.

Vote intention poll for the Sun, following delay to 2001 general election.

Parliamentary Monitor 'VOX POP'

House Magazine 'VOX POP'

Our poll on the image of the party leaders for The Times this week reveals for the first time in four elections both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition are viewed predominantly negatively by the British public.