Turnout - How Low Might It Go?

Our poll on the image of the party leaders for The Times this week reveals for the first time in four elections both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition are viewed predominantly negatively by the British public.

MORI's leader image question consists of a list of 14 descriptions or attributes, and respondents are asked to pick from the list which ones they feel fit each of the three main party leaders. [Political Attitudes in Great Britain for April 2001]. Nine of these statements are positive and five negative, and we can easily calculate each leader's average percentage score across the positive and across the negative statements, and by subtracting one from the other we derive a net figure. Mr Hague's net score has always been negative, as was John Major's from September 1992 onwards, but Mr Blair's was positive up to April last year, then plummeted in last September's poll (taken shortly after the petrol crisis) and, though it improved in the most recent poll it has still; not quite climbed back into the black.

By contrast, before the 1987 election, both Mrs Thatcher and Mr Kinnock had positive net scores, as did Mr Major and Mr Kinnock in 1992; in 1997 Mr Major's score was negative but Mr Blair's positive.

Average scores on positive and negative attributes

Source: MORI/The Times

[For the longer term trends on these figures, Lessons from Denmark, Sep 00]

It is certainly not fanciful to link the image of the leaders with electoral turnout, although it must be borne in mind that the leaders' images are in part themselves a product of more general feelings about the political system, so it could be argued that poor leader image and low turnout are both symptoms of the same malaise rather than that one is a cause of the other. At any rate, the turnout in 1987, when both leaders had a positive rating, was good; in 1992, when their combined score was better still, it was very good indeed. But in 1997, with only one of the two achieving a positive score turnout touched a post-War low and now, with both leaders scoring negatively, the indications from the likelihood of voting questions are that turnout may be lower still.

Q From this card, can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote at the next general election?

Source: MORI/The Times

As can be seen from the table, last August - before Mr Blair's image and other ratings suffered from the petrol crisis - the public's enthusiasm for the election was not too different from that in 1997. But this year's figures are significantly, and consistently, below even those of 1997. If the trends follow the previous pattern, we may be facing a very low turnout indeed - maybe lower, even, than the mid-sixties that some pundits have already predicted. It is possible, of course, that the widening of the postal vote will offset this shift, and that turnout will not be quite so poor as these figures suggest. On the other hand, the public's disillusionment with their candidates for Prime Minister suggests a reason beyond sheer apathy why we may, indeed, be setting a new and depressing record in a few weeks' time.