How the economy is impacting Americans’ holiday plans
The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week.
As the holidays draw closer, American businesses across industries are hoping for a boost in sales. Airlines are preparing for an influx of holiday travelers. Sit-down restaurants are anticipating a bump in reservations. And that’s not to mention Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or the other (ever-earlier) holiday promotions in the retail sector.
But against a mixed economic backdrop (and an even more muddled political outlook), are Americans themselves willing to spend more?
New data from the Ipsos Consumer Tracker reveals how several overlapping consumer trends are impacting each of these sectors. As with so much in American life, this is a story of two economies: Most higher earners intend to keep their holiday habits unchanged, while lower-income households are cutting back more aggressively. Tellingly, few Americans of any income level plan to increase their spending on the holidays.
Two weeks ago, we flagged a notable exception: Younger Americans were the only age group that intended to budget more for holiday gifts. This time around, we asked how much Americans planned to change their spending. Breaking this down by income reveals that 37% of those earning under $50k plan to spend less, compared with 27% of those earning $100k+. Only one in four plan to spend more, regardless of income.
A question about dining out at restaurants yielded similar results. 29% of Americans earning under $50k say they’re cutting back on holiday celebrations at sit-down restaurants, compared with 13% of those earning over $100k. Half of those bringing in more than $100K say their plans will be unchanged, compared with 32% of those earning under $50k — which lines up with other recent Tracker data on Americans’ food budgets.
And then, of course, there’s travel. The means by which Americans will travel are relatively similar across the board. Everyone, including high earners, is most likely to travel by car. Americans earning under $50k are more likely than higher earners to be travelling by bus or train.
But Americans earning over $100k are about twice as likely as the lowest-earning Americans to have holiday travel plans in the first place.
It’s no scoop that Americans earning less are trying to stretch their money further. But it’s striking how consistent the distributions are in each of these sectors — suggesting that holiday spending habits may not be as firmly entrenched as brands may hope.
Will high spenders pick up the slack? It’s a complicated picture, but American Global Influentials (those with a household income over $150k) are certainly leading the charge when it comes to leisure, travel, and leisure travel, according to Alicia Levers, an account manager with Ipsos Global Influentials, the industry’s longest-running high-income consumer behavior survey.
It’s another indicator that travel isn’t just something for summer holiday, but a year-round part of wealthy Americans’ lifestyles and identities, as we noted previously in What the Future: Leisure. And that goes beyond Q4, with a significant portion of American Global Influentials planning to do more traveling (35%) in 2024-2025, Levers said.
But in the meantime? It seems that more Americans will be cutting back — and eating, drinking or merrymaking closer to home.
More insights from this wave of the Ipsos Consumer Tracker:
More younger people are hoarding cash; Dems are using coupons
Most people say brands should create accessible digital experiences
One in four say they plan to set up a will soon
The Ipsos Care-o-Meter: What does America know about vs. what does America care about?
