North Carolinians are torn between Biden and Trump
Washington, DC, November 2, 2020
The final Reuters/Ipsos North Carolina state poll just prior to Election Day shows that the race for the presidency is too close to call for either candidate. When the very few remaining undecided voters are forced to choose between either candidate, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden receives half of the vote share among likely voters (50%) and President Donald Trump receives 48%. When undecideds are not forced to choose, the vote shares are within striking distance of each other, with Biden receiving 49% and Trump receiving 48%. Because of the closeness of the margin and the small number of undecideds, late deciders are not necessarily benefitting one candidate over the other in the final days. In the election for the Senate, the race is also too close to call, with Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham receiving 48% of the vote share among likely voters and Senator Thom Tillis receiving 46%.
President Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina remains above the national average, at 48%. North Carolinians prioritize a candidate for president that has a strong plan to help the country recover from the coronavirus pandemic (29%) and a candidate that has a strong plan on the economy and job creation (24%). When it comes to which candidate has a better plan for managing the pandemic, North Carolinians are split between Biden (45%) and Trump (41%). North Carolinians favor Trump’s policies on the economy and job creation (48%) over Biden’s plans (40%).
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 27, 2020
In North Carolina, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are locked in a heavily contested race, with Biden receiving 49% of the vote share among likely voters and Trump receiving 48%. Forty-seven percent of North Carolinians approve of the job Trump is doing as president, which is consistent with the last four weeks, and higher than the national average. When deciding on a candidate for president, 32% say a candidate with a robust plan to help the country recover from coronavirus is most important, and 24% say a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy and job creation is most important. North Carolinians are split on who they think would handle the coronavirus recovery better – Biden (45%) or Trump (42%). A majority say that Trump (51%) is better on the economy than Biden (39%). The election for the Senate also is neck-and-neck, with Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham receiving 48% of the vote share among likely voters and Republican Senator Thom Tillis receiving 47%.
North Carolinians are extremely supportive of stimulus measures, like additional loans to small businesses impacted by coronavirus (88%), eviction postponement (82%), additional unemployment payments for people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic (81%), and providing stimulus checks to Americans (81%). Just 37% of North Carolinians support Congress’ overall response to the pandemic.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 20, 2020
In North Carolina, the election for president remains too close to call. Former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden receives 49% of the vote share among likely voters, President Donald Trump receives 46%. Forty-seven percent of North Carolinians approve of the job Trump is doing as president, higher than the national average, which hovers near 40%. North Carolinians are split between a presidential candidate that can provide a strong plan for coronavirus recovery (29%) and a strong plan for the economy and job creation (24%). North Carolinians are also torn between Trump (44%) and Biden (44%) when it comes to which candidate has a better plan to deal with coronavirus. More than half of North Carolinians perceive Trump (51%) as having a better plan on the economy and job creation than Biden (39%). In the race for North Carolina’s Senate seat, Republican Senator Thom Tillis receives 47% of the vote share, up five percentage points from last week, tying Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham (47%).
North Carolinians are very supportive of economic stimulus measures, like additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related relief (87%), stimulus checks for Americans (84%), additional unemployment payments to those who have lost their job since the coronavirus pandemic began (81%), and eviction postponement (80%). Just 40% support how Congress has responded to the coronavirus. Additionally, a majority report they agree that the winner of the election should be able to appoint the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement to the court (57%).
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 13, 2020
In North Carolina, the presidential race continues to be a dead heat, with Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Biden receiving 48% of support among likely voters and President Donald Trump receiving 47%. In the Senate race, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham receives 46% of the vote share among likely voters, and Republican Senator Thom Tillis receives 42%.
Forty-seven percent of North Carolinians believe Trump is doing a good job as president. North Carolinians view having a plan to recover from the impact of coronavirus as their main issue when choosing a presidential candidate (31%), followed by a candidate who has a strong plan for the economy and job creation (24%) and a candidate who can restore trust in government (17%). Trump is seen as stronger on the economy and job creation (50%) than Biden (38%). Trump (43%) and Biden (44%) are tied on perceptions of who would best handle the recovery from coronavirus, and 43% believe Biden can restore trust in government, compared to 40% who say the same about Trump.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, October 6, 2020
In North Carolina, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (47%) and President Donald Trump (47%) are tied among likely voters in the election for president. North Carolinians approve of Donald Trump’s overall job performance (47%) at a higher rate than the national average. Having a plan to combat the impact of coronavirus is the highest priority for 28% of North Carolinians when considering a candidate for president, followed by a strong plan for the economy and jobs (21%) and the ability to restore trust in government (16%). Trump (51%) is seen as significantly stronger on the economy than Biden (35%), and Biden and Trump are seen as equals on having a plan for dealing with coronavirus (Biden – 42%, Trump – 41%), and the ability to restore trust in government (Biden – 41%, Trump – 40%). In the race for North Carolina’s Senate seat, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham (47%) has a small edge over Republican Senator Thom Tillis (42%). Fifty-two percent of North Carolinians believe abortion should be legal in most cases, and 56% say Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement should be chosen by the candidate who wins the election.
Read the full Reuters' story here.
Washington, DC, September 22, 2020
North Carolinian likely voters are tied when asked if they would support former Vice President Joe Biden (47%) or President Donald Trump (47%) if the election for president were held today. In the race for Senate, Democrat Cal Cunningham (48%) and incumbent Republican Thom Tillis (44%) are in a statistical dead heat for the seat among likely voters. About 44% of North Carolinians approve of Donald Trump’s job performance as president, slightly higher than the national average. About one-third of North Carolinians are looking for a candidate for president who can help the country recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (30%), 19% want a candidate who can restore trust in government, and 18% prefer a candidate with a strong economic plan. When it comes to specific issues, Trump (46%) is perceived to have a better plan than Biden (40%) on the economy. However, slightly more North Carolinians believe Biden has a better plan to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic than Trump (Biden – 45%, Trump – 40%), and that Biden would be more likely to restore trust in government (Biden – 44%, Trump – 38%).
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 1, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 1,009 adults age 18+ from North Carolina were interviewed online in English, including 707 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-16, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from North Carolina, including 586 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 6, 2020, among 1,100 adults age 18+ from North Carolina, including 693 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted October 7-13, 2020, among 1,000 adults age 18+ from North Carolina, including 660 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted October 14-20, 2020, among 1,001 adults age 18+ from North Carolina, including 660 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted October 21-27, 2020, among 1,006 adults age 18+ from North Carolina, including 647 likely voters.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,009, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters.
The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for all likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for all likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for all likely voters. The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for all likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for all likely voters.
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