Polling

Three weeks out from election day the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clinton’s bump from the last week or so receding just in time for the third debate. The effects of Trump’s “hot mike” incident and second debate performance appear to have subsided somewhat, and the election has reverted back to pre-debate levels.

Donald Trump’s rough performance over the last few weeks has helped Hillary Clinton move into a winning position. Clinton now leads in enough states to win the electoral college outright, even without the remaining tossup states.

The Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Debate Special was released today.

Donald Trump is having a bad week. Favorability scores of the Republican have declined since release of the 2005 audiotapes and Hillary Clinton maintains a sizable lead in national polls. However, Trump’s support level has not dropped since last week indicating there may be a floor to his potential losses.

The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation data was released today.

Hillary Clinton has had a good run in polling since the 1st debate. She has solidified her lead and improved her favourability ratings. Trump, on the other hand, has had a rough go lately. However, the adverse news cycles have not significantly depressed his favorability ratings or vote share relative to just before the 1st debate.

While Hillary Clinton won the debate and has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence in the national polling, in the most crucial battlegrounds the race is still a tossup. There are enough electoral college votes in those tossup states to put either Clinton or Donald Trump over the top – though Clinton remains in a stronger position.

While Hillary Clinton is something of a consensus winner of Monday’s debate, it hasn’t really impacted the race. She led going into the debates, did well, and leads coming out.

It looks like Hillary Clinton recovered from her pneumonia and Donald Trump caught the sniffles just in time for the first debate. In our pre-debate polling, Clinton held a lead over Trump. We’ll know later today if that lead has changed with our post- debate release.