The British pollsters for some years have followed the Gallup method of determining voting intention, asking a two part question, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on 7th June?", and leaving aside those who say at that point they would not vote, asking the remainder, usually about 90%, "Which party are you most inclined to support?" (asked of those who say they are undecided or refuse to say for which party they would vote for). As a frame of reference, figures of 30% undecided, 10% would not vote and 3% refused would not be unusual at the first question, and when asked the second, the undecideds drop to 10% and the refusals to 2%.
More bad news for the Conservatives in the latest polls. NOP is the only major polling company reported in papers today — as both the Observer (ICM) and the Sunday Telegraph (MORI) take a break in mid-campaign from spending the money to find out that the Labour Party is still flat-lining in the polls.
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Commentators and pundits, never mind the politicians and the public, continue to be misled by their focus on the gap or lead, and not the share of the vote for each party. I'd go further than that, and say watch the Tory share, for the way ICM have been asking the voting intention question, 'prompting' the respondent with the names of the parties, has led to a higher level of support for the Lib Dems than MORI, NOP and Gallup. Now that Gallup have changed their methodology to more closely approximate their American practice of reporting voting intention on those they think will be 'certain' or 'very likely' to vote, and focusing on the vote in the constituency, is likely to do the same.
The omens for turnout at the election remain poor. The figures from our latest poll for the Times, put into context by the corresponding figures from 1997, are in the table below.
The Conservatives are continuing to say that, despite what the polls say, they can still win this election. There are, they argue, still enough undecided electors whose votes they can swing; Labour's vote is big but soft.
Today's Daily Record carries polling results from six marginal seats in Scotland, and compares the results with those that it published in the same six marginal seats last week; both polls were conducted by Scottish Opinion. All very well, except that the first poll interviewed only 744 respondents in total (an average of 124 per constituency), and today's interviewed 911 (average about 152).
