Canadians' elbows are up as election nears
The Canadian national anthem celebrates the “True North strong and free”, but these days it’s more like the True North good and angry.
Canucks, known for their politeness and restraint, are cancelling vacations down south, buying Canadian and donning ‘Canada is not for sale’ hats in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestions that his northern neighbour become the 51st state as the global trade war roils stock markets.
Below, we take the temperature of usually cool-headed Canadians in the midst of a five-week federal election that wraps up on April 28.
1. Elbows up, gloves off. What a difference a few months makes.
As 2024 wound down the Liberal Party of Canada, led by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, were trailing the Conservative Party of Canada, headed by long-time Member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre, by 25 percentage points. Trudeau’s resignation didn’t budge the numbers.
A change of leadership in the form of a serious former bank governor in both Canada and England who has dealt with economic crises before, along with the outlandish statements of U.S. President Donald Trump, turned the Liberals' fortunes around.
Mark Carney has tried to distance himself from Trudeau and 'axed the tax' after years of Poilievre pestering the Liberals to do so.
The new prime minister and the long-ruling party may buck the recent anti-incumbent wave sweeping the globe, though the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives at the national level has now narrowed to three points.
The Liberal head has also quickly emerged as the federal party leader that 41% of Canadians think would make the best prime minister, compared to 36% who think the same of Poilievre.
The Conservatives are consistently drawing large, enthusiastic crowds to its “Canada First” rallies. And while Carney’s elbows up, gloves off ethos is resonating with some Canadians, that may change by election day.
As Ipsos’ Public Affairs Global CEO Darrell Bricker notes in a recent op-ed for Global News:
If one rule still holds in modern politics, it’s this: the late break decides everything.
2. From sunny ways to storm clouds. When Trudeau first won a surprise majority in 2015 he promised “sunny ways” for all.
After almost a year, then-Prime Minister Trudeau basked in what Ipsos called an 'unprecedented honeymoon' with 64% of Canadians approving of the Liberals under his leadership as only 13% of Canadians said inflation was a top worry.
Then darkness descended.
The pandemic-restriction 'Freedom Convoy' protests in early 2022, black-and-white 'F@!* Trudeau' flags and 'Justinflation' jabs from Poilievre marked the beginning of the end. Trudeau finally said he was resigning this January, with 81% agreeing with this move.
Under Carney, who was chosen as leader of the Liberals and prime minister of Canada in March, pocketbook issues — including inflation (53%), taxes (29%), poverty/social inequality (25%) and unemployment (23%) — are dominating the top five concerns for Canadians in the wake of Trump’s seemingly ever-evolving annexation and trade threats.
3. Optimism in short supply. Carney called a federal election shortly after winning the Liberal leadership race.
One person has cast a large red-white-and-blue shadow over the election.
And Carney, so far, has emerged as the top federal leader who Canadians think 'can stand up to President Trump' and 'someone who is best to manage during tough economic times'.
Alarm bells about these tough times are ringing.
Less than one-third (30%) of people in Canada said that the current economic situation in their country was good in late March/early April 2025 , slightly higher than the 25% who said the same in the early days of the pandemic in late April/early May 2020. The money mood is also lower these days than it was when inflation peaked in June 2022 in Canada when 38% said the national economy was good.
Even before the Make America Great Again (MAGA) leader said at his inauguration in early January that he would hit his northern and southern neighbours with harsh tariffs, economic sentiment in Canada remained below pre-pandemic levels.
4. Feeling locked out of homeownership. During the 2020s it’s not only the state of the national economy that has some Canadians feeling frustrated.
Like several other countries, lower interest rates during the pandemic led to bidding wars and soaring real-estate prices. The average national home price in Canada was CAD$668,097 in February 2025, well up from CAD$545,823 in February 2020.
Hopelessness has set in.
The inaugural Ipsos Housing Monitor finds while most (65%) renters in Canada would like to own their own home just over three in five (61%) don’t believe they’ll ever afford to do so. And a mere 19% of Canadians think their country is on the right track when it comes to housing, while 16% agree 'there isn't much that governments in Canada can do to deal with the country's housing problems.'
All the major federal parties clearly believe government can play a key role in fixing the housing crisis and have pitched plans during the campaign to help more people make their homeowning dream a reality.
5. Coming of age in the Age of Uncertainty. The eye-poppingly high price of housing is just one of many issues stressing out Canadians of late.
All the chaos of the first half of this decade appears to have hit younger people hard emotionally around the globe, including in Canada.
The latest edition of the Ipsos World Mental Health Day Report last autumn found 82% of Generation Zers* in Canada say they’ve felt stressed to the point where it had an impact on their daily life, followed by Millennials (73%) and Generation Xers (64%), compared to just 36% of Baby Boomers.
And as the now-worldwide trade war was really ramping up the latest wave of the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index in late March/early April revealed Canadian Boomers (48%) were significantly more likely than younger Canadians (Gen Zers, 28%, Millennials, 31%, and Gen Xers, 32%) to say their personal financial situation was very good.
Just under half (46.7%) of Canadians ages 18-24 voted in the 2021 federal election, significantly less (74.9%) than those ages 65-74. Getting stressed-out, cash-strapped younger Canadians to actually cast a ballot could be crucial for all parties vying for their slice of the voter pie. After all, Trump’s win last November was credited, in part, to Gen Z men.
As the New America shows anything can happen.
For the victor of the Canadian general election the campaign will ultimately only be the warm-up before meeting with Trump post-election.
The five-week race is likely to be the easy part as whoever is voted in as Canada’s next prime minister will have to find a way to stickhandle a tense situation to ensure their country stays the True North strong and free.
Melissa Dunne is a senior data journalist with Ipsos and is based in Canada.
Check out the one-stop spot for Ipsos in Canada’s opinion and election polling.
*Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965).
