Can we tech our way out of a food shortage?

Imagine it’s 2033. Feeding our population is harder. And different. What we grow, where we grow it and who grows it have all shifted due to macro forces like climate change, globalization and tech advancements. So what does that look like? We still get to eat, right? 

You are likely not a farmer. But it doesn’t take a futurist to know that you not only eat food today but will want to in five to 10 years. Odds are, much of that will still be farmed. Or ranched.

Farming has always been an industry dependent on both climate and weather, which has put agriculture at the forefront of dealing with climate change. Not only is the future of farming relevant to all of us as eaters, it’s also relevant to a wide range of products, services and the sectors that produce them, from tech to restaurants and grocery and CPG to auto and air travel (think biofuels).

There are two basic schools of thought about climate change: We can modify how we do things now and try to stave off the worst of it or we can adapt to a climate that is changing. And of course, the correct answer is: yes, both.

Investor Kevin Van Trump is bullish on the future of farming and technology, topics he covers in his must-read newsletter.

While many are worried about impending food shortages globally, he makes a case for why that won’t happen. 

“As humans we've done a crazily good job always of overcoming complications and problems when they arise,” he says. He sees some adaptation playing out already. “You go back 10-12 years, and it didn't seem like we were seeing nearly as much corn growing in the Dakotas. Now it's a lot less wheat and a lot more corn,” he says. “A lot of my friends and farmers who are older talk about how much it's changed in their lifetime with dramatic changes in shifts in the soil.”

He thinks that the tech coming to market in everything from autonomous equipment to gene-editing tool CRISPR to seed technology will keep us fed for a long time to come. But it’s more of an open question as to who exactly will do that feeding.

The U.S. has been a leader in agriculture because of our productive soil and abundant water. If that changes, the beneficiaries of these technologies might not be the American farmer, says Van Trump.

In short, what we farm, where it’s farmed, how it’s farmed and who (or what) does the farming is all in flux. Texans are selling off their longhorns as cattle herds move north to better climates. Farmers are changing the crops they grow to provide more inputs for plant-based meats or biofuels. And investors who are buying up parcels for water rights are accelerating the separation between those who farm the land and those who own it. 

Later in the issue we talk to a farmer who cites outside investors as one of the biggest challenges he faces to expanding his operation and passing it on to his three daughters, who want to take over the family farm when he retires. Farmers, he says, are “land rich and cash poor. They only have one opportunity to sell [their land.] They’re going to try to get the top dollar. And unfortunately, it’s not going to come from the neighbor down the road or the daughter or the beginning farmer. It’s investors.” 

Foreign investment is seen as a national security issue by some, as a Fox Business headline warned that “China can ‘blight’ U.S. food production!” by sabotaging seeds and production.

In this issue we also talk to executives from Cargill, Tyson Ventures and Ocean Spray who are changing the way they do things today and finding new ways for tomorrow. They’re responding both to climate change and consumer change as people want their food to taste good, but also be healthier, more affordable and sustainably grown. And we talk to AGCO, which is building the farm equipment of the future with more autonomy — not to replace farmers, but to help them adapt to changes in their business and keep farming later in life.

Whatever your business, the future of farming will impact it, and you, driven by changing climate and changing consumers. Solutions are abundant for both adapting and mitigating. We just need them to grow and scale.