How obesity drugs, politics and climate change are shaping the future of food
In the six years since our first Food issue, several of What the Future’s future scenarios have come to fruition. Editor Matt Carmichael looks at those shifts and others that will shape the decade to come, from obesity medications to politicization.
Imagine it’s 2034. Weight loss became politicized in the ’20s creating a have and have-not situation for Americans, depending on regulation, stigmatization and affordability.
We hate to say we told you so. … Nah, who are we kidding? It’s fun to have told you so.
Food was the topic of one of our first issues of What the Future in 2018. We talked about alternative proteins and foods using gene-modifying technology like CRISPR from many perspectives, one of which was political.
What happens, we wondered, if these issues become polarized? At the time, we talked to Jessica Almy, the policy director for the Good Food Institute, an industry organization representing producers of new meat and meat alternatives. “We’ve got at least bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress,” she said.
Now, Florida and Alabama have banned cultivated meat. Others have pledged to join the list. “Florida is fighting back against the global elite’s plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a press release.
Many forces will drive the future. Things that seem like sure things, sometimes aren’t. It’s good to use caution.
The hottest story of food for the near term seems to come from outside of food entirely — from the world of pharmaceuticals. GLP-1 medications have the potential to disrupt the world of food. But when Managing Editor Kate MacArthur asked, “What if GLP-1 medications aren’t a game-changer?” We, of course, had to pause and consider this very real plausibility.
The thing about GLP-1s isn’t necessarily that they will or won’t cause dramatic shifts in how America eats and craves. The disruption is that this suite of medications has opened a whole new set of potential futures. We weren’t having serious conversations about “What if America thought about obesity differently?” or “What if we could prevent obesity entirely?” before these came on the market. And now those are serious futures to prepare for.
The “G-whiz economy”
Like generative AI transformers, aka GPTs, the other “g” in what we’ll call today’s G-whiz economy, GLP-1’s potential could be over- or under-hyped. In the past year, Ipsos has asked consumers about their attitudes related to obesity. Americans overwhelmingly think obesity is a major health problem. Paradoxically, they agree with somewhat conflicting statements that it’s a disease that can only be controlled through diet and exercise, and that new medications have the potential to treat obesity. Most of those results have remained consistent over the last year. But the one that dipped slightly is their view of the promise of new medications.
But these medications are still so new. What if they get approved in more parts of the world? What if they get approved for children? Pill forms seem to be on the horizon. What if they become easier to take and/or easier to afford?
What we do know is that both scenarios need planning and innovation for a broad swath of industries.
Food is political in many ways
“Processed foods” have become a bit of a bugaboo in the 2024 elections, too. A pet issue of candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. (before he endorsed Donald Trump) was reducing how much processed foods Americans eat. In securing his endorsement, Trump has picked up this cause, too, to some extent.
Older Americans are already trying to limit the processed foods they eat, far outpacing younger generations. Gen Zers and Millennials are an interesting story as being generally health-conscious in a holistic, mental/physical well-being kind of way. They’re generalized as “foodies” but also still suffer from the invincibility of youth.
Climate change
Another intersection in the future of food, policy and politics is climate change. Americans’ consumption of meat is taking its toll on the planet. That could shift the political discussion, too, as we need to feed a growing population literally every day, but also see the growing impacts of climate change on our daily lives.
The stupid economy
Today and likely in the near term, so much of the popular discussion of food is centered around prices. While interest rates might have dropped recently, and inflation has slowed, prices are still high. When asked, 60% of people say they think food prices will get worse in the coming years, compared to just 21% who think prices will improve. That’s a rather negative (and enduring) outlook.
Many aspects of the economy don’t make any sense anymore. Food prices are already affecting where we eat (cooking at home or dining out), what we eat, what brands or private-label brands we purchase and more. It’s a large part of the reason New York City Public Schools serves two meals to every child who wants to eat them — to make sure they’re getting their calories. You’ll read more about all these topics.
But the food industry has faced challenges before. It is continuously having to respond to the latest fad of tastes or diets or ingredients or packaging regulation. The pandemic upended many trends about dining, and those impacts are still felt through increased delivery, patio dining and shifted office cultures, changing how we socialize with others.
Innovation is the norm. That in many ways is accelerating due to social media. Years ago, I spoke to a fishmonger at New York’s Grand Central Terminal. He would check the Wednesday New York Times recipe section for fish recipes. If there was a salmon recipe, he knew he needed to stock up for the weekend rush. Today, a food influencer can overwhelm a restaurant with customers within hours with a positive review.
As I said, there are many factors at play from many spheres:
- What if GLP-1s are used by a large sector of the population, and it changes their relationship to food and craveables like coffee or alcohol? Or not?
- What if we really can feed our children better and more affordably and teach them lifelong nutrition habits?
- What if private-label food brands lead on quality and taste?
- What will climate change do to our food supply and the consistency of the supply chain?
Grab a snack, maybe even a cocktail, and enjoy what we’ve cooked up for you. (I made it almost to the end with no food puns, but it’s just so hard not to dish them up.)
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