Why our crisis plans need more focus on preparation and resilience
When it comes to climate change, policymakers and the public must hope for the best and prepare for the worst, says FEMA’s Victoria Salinas.
Victoria Salinas, associate administrator for resilience for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, knows the disasters are coming. When she thinks about risk, she’s thinking immediate response, but also preparation and building resilience. She’s thinking about design standards for buildings that will still exist in 2100, when the effects of climate change will be profound. She’s thinking of diverse and aging populations who are more at risk, and how tech can help us care for people remotely. She’s thinking about the “slow-onset disasters” that are hard to see. Yet what she finds most alarming is how unprepared we are for the risks we already know.
Matt Carmichael: How do you predict and prepare for future crises?
Victoria Salinas: Many people think FEMA and they think of disaster response and recovery. But we have an important role to play in helping the nation become more resilient. The first step is understanding risk. There are a lot of different ways that we put information in people's hands so that they can reduce risk.
Carmichael: How does FEMA prepare for uncertainty and risk?
Salinas: Being in the federal government, you're constantly working in different budget years, given the relationship with Congress and the uncertainty about budgets. Part of it is trying to predict what you need to accomplish your mission, but Congress is the one that ultimately determines how many resources you get.
Carmichael: The time between major, billion-dollar insurance events is now 18 days. It was 57 days in the 1980s. How does that change your job?
Salinas: Last year, every three days or so, we were having an emergency declaration. That's why this administration has been so focused on resilience, because we do not have the luxury of resources or time for having so many complicated, overlapping recoveries.
“I will use the word ‘alarming,’ that even as people understand their risk more as a society, we still have a long way to go in having a culture of preparedness.”
Carmichael: What does that look like functionally?
Salinas: We've been doubling down on helping local governments understand their risk. Individuals have a role to play. Business have a role to play. I will use the word “alarming” that even as people understand their risk more as a society, we still have a long way to go in having a culture of preparedness.
Carmichael: What’s particularly alarming?
Salinas: We've seen wildfires in all kinds of different places. We surveyed places that are known based on national data to have wildfire risk. In places known to have wildfire risks, 58% of people said that they were not prepared. What that indicates to us is that we must continue to work with other trusted messengers and communities, and a whole slew of partners to make sure that people not only understand risk but are taking action to reduce their risk.
The level of behavior change needed at all levels is dramatic. When you think about how the consequences of climate change are leading to more severe, more frequent weather events, many of these things are knowable. If we take the right action, we are preventing needless human suffering. We can do that, but as a society, we have to get to the point where we're more risk-aware and taking the right actions.
Carmichael: How can the private sector help?
Salinas: There are innovative ways of caring about your own employees’ resilience and your community's resilience. Corporate social responsibility has been a big issue for a long time. As sea levels rise, coastal erosion and flooding are not only impacting neighborhoods, but real estate, the hotels, the businesses that are coastal. We're seeing opportunities for the asset owners to think about how they partner with the local governments on protecting coastal areas. And as financiers, we're seeing new funds start in the climate mitigation space and greenhouse gas emissions, etc.
Carmichael: What risks are we not thinking enough about?
Salinas: The slow onset disasters. We've had saltwater intrusion down in the Mississippi River that’s affecting the drinking water supply all the way to Jackson [Mississippi] because there was too much seaweed caused by warming oceans. In Alaska, the permafrost is thawing and ice roads, mother nature's critical infrastructure, are melting and people can't get from place A to place B. The animals aren't migrating in the same way, and people's food supply is not where it used to be. These things feel very slow but are creating major impacts in people's lives.
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