Strong personal ratings for Turnbull as Shorten languishes – Fairfax Ipsos Poll
The Coalition has pulled ahead of the Labor, according to the October Fairfax Ipsos Poll.
The national poll of 1,403 respondents, interviewed from 15-17 October 2015, showed the Coalition with 53% of the two-party preferred vote (up 7 points since August), ahead of the Labor Party on 47% (down 7 points since August), based on 2013 election preferences.
“This indicates a 0.5% swing against the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.
“The two-party stated preference vote shows the Coalition on 54%, up 10 points since August, leading the Labor Party on 46%, which was down 10 points since August.”
First preference votes put the Coalition on 45% (up 7 points since August) and the Labor Party on 30% (down 6 points since August). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with 14% (down 2 points since August). The Palmer United Party is on 1% (down 1 point since August), and others are on 9% (unchanged since August).
Five per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated reference figures.
Key findings
- Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 68%, disapproval at 17%, net approval at +51
- Bill Shorten’s approval rating is at 32% (down 7 points since August), disapproval at 56% (up 7 points since August), net approval at -24 (down 14 points since August)
- 67% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister; 21% prefer Bill Shorten (down 24 points since August)
- Of 11 attributes, Malcolm Turnbull has a statistically significant lead on all 10 of the positive attributes. The only attribute where he polls less than Shorten is in being ‘easily influenced by minority groups’, with 27% compared to Shorten 51%
- A majority (54%) supports the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, and a third (33%) are opposed to it, giving a balance of support of +21.
Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull’s first approval rating as Prime Minister is 68%; his disapproval rating is 17%. This gives a net approval of +51. This is in stark contrast to the last measurement for Tony Abbott (in August), with an approval figure of 35%, disapproval of 59%, giving a net approval figure of -24.
When compared against the first approval ratings for each of the previous five Prime Ministers, this is a strong result – with only Kevin Rudd achieving similarly high figures.
| Q.2 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of … as Prime Minister? | ||||||
| % | May 1996 | May 2008 | July 2010 | July 2013 | Nov 2013 | Oct 2015 |
| John Howard | Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | Kevin Rudd | Tony Abbott | Malcolm Turnbull | |
| APPROVAL | 61 | 69 | 54 | 51 | 47 | 68 |
| DISAPPROVAL | 18 | 22 | 32 | 43 | 46 | 17 |
(This data is taken from the first Fairfax poll taken after each Prime Minister took office)
Bill Shorten’s approval rating is at 32% (down 7 points since August). His disapproval rating is 56% (up 7 points since August). This gives a net approval of -24 (down 14 points since August).
Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred Prime Minister, at 67%; in contrast to Abbott’s August figure of 39%. 21% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a fall of 24 points since August). Again, only Kevin Rudd achieved a higher rating as preferred Prime Minister when he took office.
| Q.4 Who is your preferred Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten? | ||||
| % | PRIME MINISTER | OPPOSITION LEADER | ||
| May 1996 | John Howard | 61% | Kim Beazley | 25% |
| May 2008 | Kevin Rudd | 70% | Brendan Nelson | 17% |
| July 2010 | Julia Gillard | 56% | Tony Abbott | 35% |
| July 2013 | Kevin Rudd | 55% | Tony Abbott | 41% |
| Nov 2013 | Tony Abbott | 49% | Bill Shorten | 41% |
| Oct 2015 | Malcolm Turnbull | 67% | Bill Shorten | 21% |
(This data is taken from the first Fairfax poll taken after each Prime Minister took office)
Leader Characteristics
The tables below show the attribute scores for Turnbull and Shorten, and how these compare historically for Prime Ministers and Opposition Leaders.
Of the 11 attributes, Malcolm Turnbull has a statistically significant lead on all 10 of the positive attributes. The only attribute where he polls less than Shorten is in being ‘easily influenced by minority groups’, with 27% compared to Shorten 51%.
| TURNBULL | SHORTEN | |
| % saying attribute applies | ||
| Competent | 83 | 51 |
| Has a firm grasp of economic policy | 80 | 39 |
| Open to ideas | 75 | 58 |
| Strong leader | 75 | 30 |
| Has the ability to make things happen | 74 | 33 |
| Has a clear vision for Australia’s future | 70 | 37 |
| Has the confidence of his party | 67 | 58 |
| Has a firm grasp of foreign policy | 65 | 36 |
| Has a firm grasp of social policy | 60 | 55 |
| Trustworthy | 58 | 36 |
| Is easily influenced by minority groups | 27 | 51 |
Turnbull’s ratings for all but one of the attributes has improved since last measured in February 2015. The only aspect where he is not rated more highly than eight months ago is his grasp of social policy, with a 60% score (down 4 points).
| MR TURNBULL – TRENDS | |||
| % saying attribute applies | Feb 2015 | Oct 2015 | Change |
| Competent | 74 | 83 | +9 |
| Has a firm grasp of economic policy | 70 | 80 | +10 |
| Open to ideas | 69 | 75 | +6 |
| Strong leader | 60 | 75 | +15 |
| Has the ability to make things happen | 56 | 74 | +18 |
| Has a clear vision for Australia’s future | 58 | 70 | +12 |
| Has the confidence of his party | 52 | 67 | +15 |
| Has a firm grasp of foreign policy | – | 65 | – |
| Has a firm grasp of social policy | 64 | 60 | -4 |
| Trustworthy | 55 | 58 | +3 |
| Is easily influenced by minority groups | 23 | 27 | +4 |
In contrast, Bill Shorten is generally less positively rated than when last measured in July
2015. His figures for most attributes are relatively static, or slightly lower. Notably, he is
seen as being more ‘easily influenced by minority groups’ 51% (up 5 points), and less ‘open
to ideas’ 58% (down 10 points).
| MR SHORTEN – TRENDS | |||||
| % saying attribute applies | Jul 2014 | Nov 2014 | Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | Change |
| Open to ideas | 58 | 68 | 68 | 58 | -10 |
| Has the confidence of his party | 63 | 71 | 56 | 58 | +2 |
| Has a firm grasp of social policy | 58 | 62 | 59 | 55 | -4 |
| Competent | 57 | 58 | 52 | 51 | -1 |
| Is easily influenced by minority groups | 42 | 44 | 46 | 51 | +5 |
| Has a firm grasp of economic policy | 45 | 43 | 43 | 39 | -4 |
| Has a clear vision for Australia’s future | 38 | 43 | 36 | 37 | +1 |
| Trustworthy | 45 | 44 | 39 | 36 | -3 |
| Has a firm grasp of foreign policy | 38 | 42 | 39 | 36 | -3 |
| Has the ability to make things happen | 36 | 36 | 35 | 33 | -2 |
| Strong leader | 40 | 43 | 34 | 30 | -4 |
When compared to other Prime Ministers (see table above), Turnbull’s ratings for being
competent (83%), open to ideas (75%), having a clear vision for Australia (70%), and having
a firm grasp of economic policy (80%) are historically high.
Chinese Australian Free Trade Agreement
A majority of Australians (54%) support the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, and a third (33%) are opposed to it.
Support is significantly higher among men, graduates, those currently saying they will vote for the Coalition, and those on household incomes above $40,000 per annum.
Poll Profile
Fieldwork dates: 15-17 October 2015
Sample size: 1,403 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers
Method:
Telephone, using random digit dialling
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/nonmetro) to reflect the population distribution.
