The Turnbull honeymoon fades but Shorten makes little progress

Support for GST falls

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen seven points to 62% since November 2015, however the Coalition remains ahead of the Labor Party in the latest Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The national poll of 1,403 respondents, interviewed from 11-13 February 2016, also shows that Turnbull’s disapproval rating is 24% (up 8 points since November). This gives a net approval of +38 (down 15 points since November). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 30% (up 1 point since November), while his disapproval rating is 55% (down 2 points since November). This gives a net approval of -25 (up 3 points since November).

“Malcolm Turnbull remains the referred Prime Minister, at 64%, a fall of 5 points since November. Nineteen per cent favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister, a rise of only 1 point since November. The preference figures for Shorten, as Opposition Leader, to become Prime Minister remain lower than that polled for any other Opposition Leader since the Nielsen trends began in 1995,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

Key findings

• Voting intentions: Two-party vote, based on 2013 election preferences: Coalition 52% (down 4 points since November 2015) leads the Labor Party 48% (up 4 points since November 2015)
• GST: If an increase in GST is accompanied by other tax cuts and compensation (for those households earning less than $100,000 per annum) 37% would support the change, a fall of 15 points since November 2015.
• The Federal election: Only one in five (22%) would support an early Federal election; the vast majority (74%) believes the Government should serve its full term.

Voting intentions

The Coalition remains ahead of the Labor Party. The Coalition has 52% of the two-party preferred vote (down 4 points since November), ahead of the Labor Party on 48% (up 4 points since November), based on 2013 election preferences. This indicates a 1.5% swing against the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election. The two-party stated preference vote shows the Coalition on 53% (down 4 points since November), leading the Labor Party on 47% (up 4 points since November).
First preference votes put the Coalition on 44% (down 4 points since November) and the Labor Party on 32% (up 3 points since November). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with 15% (up 2 since November). The Palmer United Party remains on 1% (unchanged since November), and others are on 9% (up 1 point since November).

GST

Support for an increase in the GST, with compensation for those household incomes of less than $100,000 per year, has fallen away over the summer. Now only 37% support this change (a fall of 15 points), with 57% opposed.

Even among Coalition voters the proposition gains only a narrow majority support of 51%, with 43% opposed. Among other voters just above a quarter support the change, with the majority opposed.

The next Federal election

There is little appetite for an early election, with only 22% backing a Federal election as soon as possible. Among younger voters there is more interest for an early election (37% support among 18-24 year olds, 30% among 25-39 year olds, and 19% among those aged 40-54).

The limited enthusiasm for an early Federal election is more likely to come from Labor and Green voters.

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 11-13 February 2015
Sample size: 1,403 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 32% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution