Snapshot August 2024
The two-horse race for our attention between Housing and Immigration continues, with Immigration getting the nod in the latest Irish Times/Snapshot poll.
One in five respondents (21 per cent, up 5 points in the past month) mentioned Immigration first when asked what they had seen or heard recently from Government that made them think the country is going in the right or wrong direction.
Interviewing for the latest Snapshot was conducted between 1st and 14th August among a national sample of Irish adults aged 15 years and upwards.
For the most part, the public feel the Government is getting it wrong on Immigration, with negative comments far outweighing positive ones.
A thematic analysis of all verbatims in recent Snapshot polls gives a clear picture of public opinion on the important topic of Immigration.
The primary concern among the public is our ability to cope with the sheer pace and scale of immigration. A perceived Government failure to manage the crisis is summed up in one comment: “no issues with [immigrants and refugees] but there seems to be no planned way of handling these people….you can’t bring 1000's of people in and have no plan”.
The ability of our housing infrastructure to cope with an ever-expanding immigrant population is a practical challenge frequently referenced by Snapshot respondents, some of whom blame Government immigration policy for making it so difficult for young Irish people to buy or rent a home.
Another theme to emerge is the potentially negative consequences from a lack of organisation or implementation. Mentions of “undocumented”,“uncontrolled” and “unvetted” pepper the verbatim comments.
The analysis also reveals pockets of positive sentiment towards the Government. Many respondents took the opportunity to acknowledge Ireland’s openness to asylum seekers and refugees: “I like that they and the other parties are affirming the need to help”.
For almost one in five Snapshot respondents (19 per cent, down 1 point), Housing is the most salient issue. Among females (22 per cent) and those from middle-class backgrounds (23 per ent), Housing is more top-of-mind than Immigration.
The focus on Housing is highly correlated with age, with under 35s twice as likely to mention Housing as the over 55s (23 per cent versus 12 per cent respectively).
Housing and Immigration top the list of concerns in every region and likely in every constituency, the only difference being Housing is a bigger issue in Dublin and Immigration is bigger outside Dublin.
Social Policies is third on the list and attracts 5 per cent of mentions. On balance, sentiment is positive, with the public noticing how pensions, parents and children are benefitting from increased investment.
Mentions of Budget/Spending (3 per cent) also lean positive: “more money out there and the Government are spending”. Education (3 per cent) is also a winning platform at this moment in time: “hot meals and free books”.
Healthcare/HSE (4 per cent), Crime/Gardai (3 per cent) and Cost Of Living/Inflation (3 per cent) are still very much part of the conversation, but sentiment around these issues tends towards the negative: “healthcare system is a joke”, “laws are too lenient” and “prices are too high”.
Some big-ticket items such as Climate Change/Sustainability (2 per cent) and Palestine/Israel Conflict (2 per cent) are not currently cutting through the noise, recording their lowest levels of mention in quite some time.
Unfortunately for Government, our Olympic medal haul far exceeded Snapshot mentions of how the state contributed to our success in Paris, with just two respondents linking medals with the funding of sport in Ireland.
Summer recess is not a time when a lot happens in politics, offering little opportunity for Government to change the narrative. All that may change in the months ahead, however, with a budget around the corner and a general election likely soon thereafter.
The table can be viewed/downloaded below.