Towards a United Ireland - Is it now or never?

Partitioned in 1921, it has long been the ambition, or more accurately the hope, of people in the Republic of Ireland (the 26 counties) to unite with Northern Ireland (the 6 counties). An Ipsos B&A poll for the Irish Times and ARINS published in November 2023 revealed support for a United Ireland at 64 per cent, with just 16 per cent against.

The author(s)
  • Damian Loscher President
Get in touch

Towards a United Ireland

Is it now or never?

Partitioned in 1921, it has long been the ambition, or more accurately the hope, of people in the Republic of Ireland (the 26 counties) to unite with Northern Ireland (the 6 counties). An Ipsos B&A poll for the Irish Times and ARINS published in November 2023 revealed support for a United Ireland at 64 per cent, with just 16 per cent against. 

The answer to why a united Ireland is now on the agenda lies in a confluence of economic and political events.

On the economic front, Ireland is on a high. From technical bankruptcy after the Great Financial Crisis, the country has risen like a phoenix. Ireland is the European home of US tech and pharma giants: corporation and income tax receipts have mushroomed. GDP growth has been stellar, so much so that the Irish economy grew even during the pandemic.

The turnaround in the national finances over the past decade has opened the door to the possibility that the cost of uniting both ends of the island may be manageable, although recent Ipsos polling has confirmed a reluctance among some voters to foot the bill.

Politically, the rise of Sinn Fein – the most popular political party north and south – has given additional impetus to unification. Underlying the success of Sinn Fein in the Republic of Ireland has been wide disgruntlement at the lack of housing or affordable rental accommodation, not the desire for a united Ireland, however the support the party now attracts has allowed it to push its desire for a united Ireland onto the national agenda. 

The timing also seems right. It is a quarter of a century since the Good Friday Agreement was signed, establishing a new power-sharing Government in Northern Ireland. The agreement also refers to the type of consent that would be needed to achieve a united Ireland: in essence, a majority vote for unification in both jurisdictions. Timing is important because an overwhelming majority of Protestants in Northern Ireland were strongly against unification when the agreement was signed. Moving too quickly would have risked alienating this community.

Enough time has now passed for the idea to be at least discussed, but still a majority of the population in Northern Ireland would not vote for change - 51 per cent would vote for remain while only 30 per cent would vote for unity. This gap will not close simply by dint of Catholics outnumbering Protestants in the fullness of time. Attitudes will have to change.

A united Ireland is still highly unlikely in the short term, but the simple fact that it is being openly discussed demonstrates how far Ireland has travelled, economically and politically, in recent decades.

The author(s)
  • Damian Loscher President

More insights about Culture