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Despite earlier statements by the NASA leadership to the contrary, late on Friday, 18 August (one week after IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati declared Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had been re-elected as president and deputy-president, respectively), a petition was filed with the Supreme Court challenging this.

Ipsos’ most recent opinion poll

The author(s)

  • Hilda Kiritu Ipsos Public Affairs, Kenya
  • Nicholas Mwenda Ipsos Public Affairs, Kenya
  • Tom Wolf Research Analyst
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Several reasons (at the time, and subsequently) were given for this about-turn. One was that the ‘targeting’ of several civil society organizations that may have considering doing this had interrupted any such preparations. Another was that whatever the verdict of the Supreme Court, preparing evidence related to the election’s conduct and putting it in the public domain would both challenge the legitimacy of Jubilee’s victory and constitute an agenda for future electoral reform.

At the same time, the alleged ferocity of the response of the Kenya Police to protests and demonstrations (with “at least” two dozen killed by “live bullets”, according to the government’s own Kenya National Commission of Human Rights) required, NASA argued, an effort to reveal the legitimacy of these protests. In advance of the actual start of the hearing of the petition, therefore, Ipsos felt that these critical national issues deserved attention, and which could be addressed through a short, quick national survey that the CATI platform allows.

In devising the sample, Ipsos utilized the mobile phone numbers willingly provided for such a purpose by respondents in a number of recent national household surveys, allocating the target of 1,000 according to Kenya’s national population-distribution.

Suggested Story Headlines:

‘Most Kenyans consider Police reaction to post-election protests/demonstrations as excessive, while few are confident they will be held accountable for the same’

‘Kenyans attest to a variety of election irregularities before, on, and after August 8’ ‘Vast majority support NASA’s decision to file presidential election petition, but are almost evenly split on whether they will get justice’

‘Most Kenyans are aware of the Chris Msando murder, but few expect the killers to be found and convicted’

Important Note – Recent Events:

During and after the interviews were conducted, several developments occurred whose (full) impact may not be reflected in some of the results reported in this survey.

Among them are:

  • Supreme Court holds preliminary procedural hearings on the presidential petition case (26-27 August)
  • Burial of (baby) Samantha Pendo in Ugunja (August 26)
  • First day of full hearing of the NASA presidential petition case is held (August 28)

Key Points

  1. Looking Back: Perceived Credibility of the Supreme Court 
  2. Perceived Election Irregularities
  3. Post-Election Protests and Police Response
  4. The NASA Petition at the Supreme Court
  5. The Msando murder

Concluding Comment:

The main issues raised in this survey are clearly still outstanding. These include especially that of (1) accountability for the Police involved in responding to the protests and demonstrations that occurred following the declaration of the presidential result, (2) NASA’s decision to file a presidential election petition with the Supreme Court, (3) the Court’s perceived integrity/credibility (inevitably based on part on the outcome of the petition, and reasoning behind it), and (4) accountability for the Msando murder.

As such, future developments will affect the public’s views regarding all three, beginning, it seems, with the second.

Future Ipsos surveys will therefore be able to explore these, among other issues, related to public confidence in key public officials and institutions.

 

The author(s)

  • Hilda Kiritu Ipsos Public Affairs, Kenya
  • Nicholas Mwenda Ipsos Public Affairs, Kenya
  • Tom Wolf Research Analyst