Budget well received, but no bounce for Morrison

The Labor Party’s lead over the Coalition has widened in the April 2019 Ipsos Poll.

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 3-6 April 2019, shows the Labor party on 53% (up two points since February 2019), with the Coalition on 47% (down two points since February), based on 2016 election preferences.

“These figures indicate a 3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election. This is the sixteenth consecutive poll where Labor has led the Coalition in the two party preferred preference flow vote figures,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

The two-party stated preference vote also shows the Labor party on 53% (up two points since February) and the Coalition on 47% (down two points since February).

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 37% (down one point since February), with Labor on 34% (up one point since February). The Greens’ primary vote is 13% (unchanged since February), One Nation is on 5% (unchanged since February), the Centre Alliance is on 1% (unchanged since February) and others are on 10% (down one point since February).

Nine per cent of respondents are undecided (up one point since February). These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures and from the primary vote figures.

Key findings

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 48% (down one point since February), and his disapproval rating is 39% (down one point since February). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 36% (down four points since February), and his disapproval rating is 51% (down one point since February).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 46% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister (down two points since February); 35% prefer Bill Shorten (down three points since February)
• Fair budget: 41% think the Federal Budget was fair; 29% do not think it was fair.
• Personal impact of the Budget: 38% think they will personally be better off because of the Federal Budget; 24% think they’ll be worse off; 20% think it will make no difference.
• Climate change: 42% believe the Labor Party has the best policy on climate change; 25% name the Coalition and 34% say they don’t know which party has the best policy on this issue.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 48% (down one point since February), and his disapproval rating is 39% (also down one point since February). The proportion who say they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’ is 13% (up two points since February).

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating has decreased, with approval at 36% (down four points since February). His disapproval rating is virtually unchanged, at 51% (down one point since February). This gives a net approval of -15 (down three points since February).

Scott Morrison remains the preferred Prime Minister, with 46% (down two points since February) and 35% prefer Bill Shorten as PM (down three points since February).

Fair Budget

Two in five (41%) Australians consider last Tuesday’s Federal Budget as fair; 29% do not. This gives a positive balance of opinion of +12, which is the most positive reception for any Budget since the 2nd Abbott/Hockey budget in 2015.

The budget was well received among Coalition voters, with 70% considering it ‘fair’. In contrast, only 30% of Labor voters, a quarter of Green voters (23%) and a quarter of One Nation voters (26%) describe the budget as ‘fair’.

Those who own or are buying their home on mortgage are significantly more likely than others to consider it a fair budget (48% and 28%, respectively).

Q.  Do you believe the Federal Budget announced on Tuesday by the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, was a fair Budget, or not?

Personal impact of the Budget

More than one third (38%) believe that this year’s Federal Budget will make them personally feel better off; a quarter (24%) think they’ll feel worse off and one in five (20%) think it will make no difference. This matches the positive reception to last year’s Budget.

Coalition voters are significantly more likely to think they’ll be better off because of the Budget (51%), in contrast to Labor (33%), Greens (26%) and One Nation (38%) voters.

Some groups of voters are more likely than others to think they’ll personally benefit from this year’s Budget:

• Men are significantly more likely than women to think they’ll personally benefit from the Budget (42% and 34%, respectively).
• Those aged 25-55 are also significantly more likely than older voters to think the Budget will make them better off (42% and 32%, respectively).
• Those on the highest incomes (households earning more than $100,000 per annum) are more likely to think the Budget will benefit them, at 46%. This compares to 38% among middle income households (earning $40,000-$100,000 per annum) and 33% among low income households (earning less than $40,000 per annum).

Climate change

The vast majority of Labor and Greens voters identify the Labor Party has having the best policy on climate change (72% and 69%, respectively). In contrast, only half (51%) of Coalition voters, and only 40% of One Nation voters, name the Coalition as having the best policy in this area.

Labor is significantly more likely to be named as having the best policy on climate change among a range of voters:

• Those living in capital cities (45%, compared to 35% among those in regional or rural areas).
• High income households, earning more than $100,000 per annum (49%, compared to 39% among medium and low income households).
• Those with a university degree (53%, compared to 35% among those without a university degree).

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 3-6 April 2019
Sample size: 1,200 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+, 50% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.