Swing sees Liberals hanging on in Canning – Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The Liberals are ahead of Labor in the Canning by-election in the September Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The poll of 1,003 respondents, interviewed from 10-12 September 2015, shows the Liberal party candidate Andrew Hastie with 53% of the two-party preferred vote, ahead of Labor candidate Matt Keogh on 47%, based on stated preferences. These findings indicate a 9% swing against the Liberals since the September 2013 Federal election.

The two-party preferred vote based on 2013 election preferences shows the Liberals (52%) leading Labor (48%).

First preference votes put the Liberals (Hastie) on 45% and Labor (Keogh) on 36%. The Greens candidate Vanessa Rauland continues to lead minor party support with 9%. The Palmer United Party candidate Vimal Kumar Sharma is on 2%, and others are on 7%.

Twelve per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

“The September poll found that 29% of voters indicated that they felt that Andrew Hastie and the Liberal party have the best policies for managing the ice (crystal methamphetamine) problem in Canning, compared to 12% of voters who indicated that Matt Keogh and Labor have the best policies,” Ipsos Director David Elliott said.

“The remaining 49% of respondents indicated that they don’t know which party has the best policies for managing the ice problem in Canning.”

Key findings

• Two-party vote, based on stated preferences: Liberal 53% lead Labor 47%
• Two-party vote, based on 2013 election preferences: Liberal 52% lead Labor 48%
• First preferences: Liberal 45%, Labor 36%
• 12% of respondents still undecided
• Tony Abbott’s approval is at 39%, disapproval is 54%, net approval at -15
• Bill Shorten’s approval is at 34%, disapproval at 50%, net approval at -16\
• 36% would prefer Shorten as Prime Minister; 42% would prefer Abbott.
• 7% intend to change their vote to Labor as a result of the Government’s economic performance

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39%. His disapproval rating is 54%. This gives a net approval of -15. Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 34%. His disapproval rating is 50%. This gives a net approval of -16.

Tony Abbott is the preferred Prime Minister at 42%, while 36% favour Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister.

The impact of the Federal Government’s economic performance

7% of voters indicated that they would vote Labor because of the Federal Government’s economic performance, whilst 3% say they will vote Liberal because of this economic performance.

78% say the Federal Government’s economic performance has not changed how they will vote.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement

Support for the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement is mixed, with 43% supporting, and 37% opposed. The balance of opinion is +6.

Support for the Agreement differs according to partisanship. 65% of those voting Liberal indicated that supported the Agreement, compared to 27% of Labor voters.

Males are more likely to be in favour of the agreement at 49%.

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 10-12 September 2015
Sample size: 1,003 respondents
Sample: Canning electorate, aged 18+. 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method:
 Telephone, using quota sampling.
Statistical reliability: 3.1% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted by age and gender to reflect the population
distribution.