Brief Gloom Evaporates, Canadians Upbeat About Current Economy And Year Ahead...
The Canadian Economic Confidence Index developed by Ipsos-Reid has climbed 0.93 points from 99.21 in May 2004 to 100.14, on par with the 100.00-point score at its conception in August 2002. The index functions as a predictor for the Canadian economy. The index is based on six key factors that influence Canadians' expectations of whether the Canadian economy will improve, stay the same or get worse in the next year or so.
Positive home purchasing intentions and low job anxiety continue to give the Canadian Economic Confidence Index a strong push, but to a slightly lesser degree than in May 2004. Today, 13% of Canadians continue to say that they are likely to purchase a new or another home (5% "very likely," 8% "somewhat likely"). And, just two in ten (19%) Canadians are worried about either themselves or someone in their household losing their job.
Interest rate predictions remains by far the major negative factor, but not to the same extent as seen in May. Today 65% of Canadians believe interest rates will "go up" in the next six months, one-quarter (26%) believes rates will "remain unchanged," while just 5% think rates will "go down."
Along the same lines, expectations about big-ticket spending in the next year and everyday purchase intentions continue to dampen economic confidence, as they have since August 2002, but their negative impact on the index is less than what it was in May.
Three in ten (28%) Canadians say they plan to spend more on big-ticket items such as a car, household appliances, or vacations the next year than they did last year, while the same proportion (29%) says they expect to spend less on major purchases than they did last year. The remaining 43% says they plan to spend about the same amount.
One-third (33%) of Canadians say they expect to spend more on things such as groceries, clothing or other personal goods and services than last year, 12% say they plan to spend less. Slightly greater than half (55%) of Canadians say they intend to spend about the same amount on everyday items this year as they did last year.
Finally, while expectations that one's personal economic situation will improve is up, it remains a negative attribute in the calculation of the index. One-third (35%) of Canadians think their personal economic situation will "improve," while just 15% think it will "get worse." Half (50%) of Canadians think their personal economic situation will "stay the same."
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted from August 24th August 26th, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Please open the attached PDF to view the full release, including all charts and tables and the detailed tables.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
