Britain and EMU

Our latest MORI poll suggests that the launch of the "Britain in Europe" campaign has not reduced public opposition to EMU entry. Indeed, the balance of public opinion against EMU entry has risen again, and is close to the peaks seen at the time of the midyear EU elections.

It is hard to see a trigger for a big pro-EMU shift in sentiment in the next few months, given the lack of a strong pro-EMU lead from the government and the UK economy's good performance outside EMU. With the next general election likely to be held in about 18 months, Labour will become increasingly reluctant to promote EMU entry strongly if public opinion remains against.

It is looking increasingly likely that, at some point in the next six to nine months, the government will aim to defuse EMU as an election issue by signalling that a post-election EMU referendum is unlikely. The referendum option will only remain open if public opposition to EMU falls sharply in the next few months or Prime Minister Tony Blair - in defiance of public opinion - starts to give a strong lead on the issue.