Latest RAJAR radio audience listening results released

The weeks have rolled past and the next set of RAJAR results (Q3 2010) are now upon us. 160 The headline results show that 91% of people aged 15 and over listen to the radio for 5 minutes or more in an average week, amassing 1.06bn listening hours in the period. This is on a par with the previous set of results and remains an impressive feat for a medium currently undergoing significant financial upheaval.

Commercial radio has had a strong period.160 At the start of the year, BBC Radio stations were being listened to by 68% of the national 15+ population, leaving Commercial radio 5% points, around 2.75 million listeners, behind with 63% reach. This is the largest gap since the start of 2009 when it was also 5% points. In fact you have to go back to Quarter 2 2008 to find a larger gap, when the difference was 6% points.

However, as 2010 has progressed, Commercial Radio has been on the comeback trail. The gap closed to 3 percentage points in Quarter 2, and this quarter to a mere 1 percentage point, just 870,000 fewer listeners than the BBC. Commercial Radio has not hit 65% reach since Quarter 1 2004 and has never had a higher reach than BBC, so this really seems to mark an important stage in its RAJAR history.

On an individual station level, results for the larger stations remain stable in the main, but scratch the surface and there are some really interesting undercurrents.

Of the BBC national stations, Radios 1 and 2 have the largest audiences. They also have arguably the two highest profile breakfast DJs - Chris's Evans and Moyles respectively.160 Quarter 3's data appear to show both as having a challenging time of it.

From Quarter 1 to Quarter 2 this year, the audience for Chris Evans' show fell by around one million listeners (9.5 to 8.5 million). On the face of it, the Quarter 3 audience of 8.1 million represents another decline in listeners. However, there is a different story if looking at the longer term trend. The third quarter of the year looks to be bad news for BBC breakfast DJs.160 Terry Wogan's breakfast show started at 7.30am - half an hour later than Evans - but in Quarter 3 2009, he was only attracting 7.8 million listeners, which was also a decline, down 175,000, compared to the previous quarter.

Chris Moyles has also seen a decline in listening in Quarter 3. His breakfast show has lost 600,000 listeners since last quarter, this time posting figures of 7.1 million listeners. Again, however, this is in line with previous Quarter 3 trends. Year on year, Moyles is showing a modest increase, up from 7.0 million listeners. Between the same two periods last year, the show shed 615,000 listeners. Relatively speaking, 2010's third quarter has been kind.

It's well worth noting that the fieldwork for Quarter 3 finished on the 19th September. Chris Moyles' `Wage Rant', for which he was heavily criticised was broadcast on 22nd September - too late for any listener boycott to be shown in the Quarter 3 data. Meanwhile, Chris Evans' criticism of his Radio 1 counterpart on another BBC national station - 5Live - occurred in mid-October. It'll be interesting to see if the quarter on quarter decline of the two heavyweights will continue into Quarter 4, or if it will simply follow the trend of previous years.

One station neatly demonstrating the timeless "no publicity is bad publicity" adage is the digital-only BBC 6 Music. The talk of closure earlier in the year brought campaigns and protests, but also dragged in new listeners. This was first shown in Quarter 1 2010 when listening leapt from the steady 600,000 the station had been reaching, to over the million mark. This continued into Quarter 2 and has been upheld in Quarter 3, proving its stickability with their new listener base - during Quarter 3, nearly 1.2 million people listened to the station during an average week. This may sound small, but bear in mind this is a digital-only station, so can only be listened to via DAB, DTV and over the internet. Compare this to the 2.1 million listeners to BBC Radio 3, who enjoy all the trappings of a national analogue station, availability in nearly all cars, houses, mobile phones and so on, and it becomes all the more impressive.

So Quarter 3 2010 seems to show Commercial radio on the charge and drawing closer than ever to the BBC, however history shows that this is a strong time of year for the commercial sector. History also shows that, as autumn and winter set in, the listener has tended to turn back the BBC.160 It'll be early February next year before we know if this trend will continue or if the in-fighting and discussion of wage slips amongst some of the biggest DJs in the country will have a more lasting effect.